Tropical Write Up

 The remints of Arthur are meandering around the Southeast.

Arthur didn’t remain a tropical cyclone for long, but it did bring of torrential rains and severe weather across parts of the Deep South yesterday, resulting in widespread flooding across south and central Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi and lower Alabama.

As this pushes east off the Coast, it is currently over the Carolinas, there is a very slight chance this could try to redevelop during the next 7 days as it moves off the U.S. east coast.  The window for any development is very short. As this will merge with the large area of low pressure to the north.  Earlier today the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had a 10 % chance of this developing. But that has since been lowered to a 0% chance.

The window for any development is very short. it appears to merge with the large area of low pressure to its north.

 

There is a large tropical wave emerging into the East Atlantic off the West Coast of Africa. But conditions aren’t conductive for development with a lot of dry dusty air and high wind shear.

In spite of the hostile conditions the cyclone formation probability forecast is currently a 10 to 20% probability for development of this wave. While the odds of development are very low, I will keep an eye on it over the next 48 hours.