Mesoscale Discussion 1091

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic into southern New York and
   southwestern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111902Z - 112100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
   afternoon across the mid-Atlantic northward into southern New York
   and southwestern New England. Severe wind gusts and hail are
   possible with the strongest storms.

   DISCUSSION...Some deeper convective attempts are underway this
   afternoon across portions of the mid-Atlantic, particularly in
   southern New York as of 1900z. This development is occurring in a
   warm, unstable airmass with surface temperatures in the upper 80s
   and lower 90s F and MLCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg. The 18z
   ALB/Albany, NY sounding sampled the northern periphery of this
   airmass (along the CAPE gradient) with 0-6-km shear of 24 kts. This
   has supported some sporadic, more organized thunderstorm development
   recently.

   As the afternoon progresses, diurnal heating should support
   additional thunderstorm development across the region. Furthermore,
   a mid-level impulse in eastern OH -- influencing the ongoing
   convection in WW312 -- will continue moving eastward and should
   provide additional support for convective initiation and maturation.
   Bulk shear is expected to remain generally in the 15-25 kt range
   which, amidst forecast large MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg, will
   promote strong updrafts capable of producing wind gusts and hail.
   Uncertainty remains as to how much convection will develop and
   coalesce/strengthen in the short term, but trends will continue to
   be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39937855 42097738 42657579 42777436 42337326 41237290
               40177310 37717495 37397648 37777765 38937842 39937855 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN