Another active and unsettled week ahead.

We have the high-pressure heat ridge that was in the Plains, is building back to the west. From Texas into the far Southwest, it is going to continue to be very hot and dry. Disturbances are going to form north of the ridge and drop into the Northern Plains into the Tennessee Vally. The flow will also drive drier air into the Southeast. For up here in the Northeast, it’s going to be the opposite, with cool conditions. As we deal with low pressure sitting over the Hudson Bay bringing deep troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Region.  

Here is a look at the 500mb showing the general look of the overall pattern.

 

The Northeast and Middle Atlantic is going to continue to be active this week, as we deal with a series of shortwave troughs and frontal systems, as the rotate around the low pressure to the north, this will keep us unsettled.

Surface Chart and radar

 

 

Today

That area of low-pressure that was in the Gulf of Maine is now impacting the Canadian Maritimes, the primary surface low pressure in leaving the Great Lakes heading into Canada. With a cold front moving through. This front is in the process of stalling and as the chart shows it is occluding, So, we’re dealing with below average temperatures, and it’s wet across the Northeast. Along with the rain showers, there will be some thunderstorms, some of these storms could be strong to severe. With damaging gusty winds, heavy rain, and hail. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for a large part of the region.

Out ahead of the warm front moving through New England, temperatures and dew points are higher, there will be the chance for showers that could be heavy, particularly for Connecticut, Rhode Island, southeastern and western Massachusetts.

Behind the cold front cooler and drier air will drop in from Canada.  

 

Tomorrow

We will see rain showers and thunderstorms over northern New York State and New England, some of these could be strong to severe, especially over Maine, where the SPC has a Marginal risk.  

Across the region it will feel very fall-like, Winds will be gusty once again. Right now, the southern Half of New York State and Southern New England look to be mainly dry. For Most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, there will be increasing sun and things generally look dry.

For a large part of the region, Wednesday is looking to be dry and tranquil. Temperatures will slowly start to climb.

Rest of the week

Past Wednesday we’re going to see a series of disturbances move through, so it will be unsettled with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be climbing.

By next weekend, the Southwest ridge is going to start to move east, with a deep trough building into the Pacific Northwest.

The tropical Atlantic. 

Last Thursday marked the unofficial start of the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs in early to mid‑September, with September 10 identified as the climatological peak. Nearly two-thirds of all activity happens between now and October.

There are three areas to watch out in the Atlantic Basin.

The first area to watch is located in the central Atlantic.

The first area is a non-tropical system near Portugal that is producing strong winds, but there isn't any chance this becomes a tropical system. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this 2 day and 7-day odds of 0%

 The second area (invest 95L) is south and east of Bermuda.  There is a chance this could develop into a depression for the next few days, The NHC has the 2-day developments odds at 40% and the 7-day odds at 40%. This will bring heavy rain to Bermuda late tonight into Monday. Then it will bring rain for Newfoundland on Wednesday before curving into the far northern Atlantic.

The third area is a strong tropical wave that will be rolling off the West Coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic tomorrow.  The NHC is giving the wave moderate odds to develop into a tropical depression, with the 7-day odds at 50%

Once in the Atlantic, the wave will face its share of atmospheric hostility, wind shear is still impacting the eastern Atlantic, but it is more favorable over the western Atlantic. But there is still high shear in the Caribbean and Gulf.  As this approaches the leeward and windward Islands it looks to stay north and east of there, this would allow it to track toward more favorable conditions. So, there is a window for this to develop into a Tropical Storm or even the first Hurricane of the season.  If this survives to get into the western Atlantic Basin, it looks to stay away from the Bahamas and East Coast, but that could change. Bermuda and the Atlantic region of Canada would have a greater chance of having some at least some impacts.  Right now, it’s really too early to know for sure if this survives and where it will exactly track.

The next name on the list is Dolly.