Still unseasonably cool!

 

Surface chart and radar.

 

   

Week overview

The high-pressure heat ridge is going to build east the end of the week.  So, we will warm up across the Middle Atlantic.  We’re also going to be dealing with a persistent Omega Block over the next few weeks. So, while we warm up, it shouldn’t end up a prolonged hot spell.

Today

It will be similar to Monday, with cool conditions by August standards. We do have a few little troughs moving through that will create scattered showers across northern parts of the region, and isolated showers over the southern part. Those away from Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will see a lot of rain-free time.  We do have high pressure moving in, this is going to push the lake effect rain downwind of the Great Lakes southward, then it should end this afternoon. Skies will start to clear west to east across the region.

Rest of the week

We are all dry on Wednesday as temperatures get back to near average. With high pressure overhead, there will be a lot more sun, the region looks to stay dry, with humidity levels starting to inch up.

 

Thursday a cold front will approach, ahead of the front temperatures will become above average and humidity will be noticeable. Thursday an approaching system will bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Western parts of the region will see rain showers move in Thursday morning. These will work their way east during the day into Thursday night. These rain and thunderstorms will be scattered, but it doesn’t look to be a washout. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and isolated moderate to large hail …  Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large part of the region at a Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. There is a chance the SPC expands the risk into the Delmarva and New England. A few showers and thunderstorms could linger into Friday morning/ early afternoon as the cold front clears the region, with skies clearing west to east across the region. Behind the front temperatures will once again become below average, with dew points becoming very comfortable.

Next weekend looks to be tranquil. We should see a good deal of sunshine and high temperatures look to be slightly below average to near average for both days For Saturday and much of Sunday the region should stay mostly dry with only a slight chance for an isolated shower as a trough hangs around.

Monday and Tuesday will see a cold front to our west; this looks to get hung up. It will be close enough for a few showers and thunderstorms but there should be plenty of dry time. The farther west you are, the greater your chance of seeing this unsettled weather. We will see a southernly flow, that will allow temperatures to become quite warm with humidly being very noticeable.

 

Tropics

Invest 95L

95L is east of Bermuda, it continues to struggle and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has lowered the development odds to 40%. It still has a slight chance to develop, but the window is closing quickly, as wind shear will pick back up later today and Wednesday, as 95L picks up speed and heads northward. This will bring rain to Atlantic Canada, but the worst of the conditions should stay out in the shipping lanes. 95L will head into the cooler waters of the far northern Atlantic Thursday into Friday.

That other tropical wave.

We have a vigorous tropical wave near Cabo Verde. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated this Invest 96L. 96L has a good chance of becoming Dolly down the road.  The NHC has this at a high 70% chance of development over the next 2 and 7-day.

Looking at it on satellite, the tropical wave is showing signs of getting its act together. There is some atmospheric moisture around 96L, but dry air is still an issue. Wind shear is moderate. So, any development will remain very slow.  96L looks to generally track west-northwest over the next few days.  If this is the case, 96L should be near the northern Leeward Islands late Saturday or Sunday. Sea-surface temperatures in that part of the Atlantic are 82°F and 84°F. With the ridge building eastward, the wind shear will become more favorable, so this could become Dolly, if it makes it that far!

From there is should start to make a turn to the north. All of this will depend on the Bermuda high, as this builds, it will force this to keep this on this general course, but it’s strength and location will determine when it begins to take that northern turn.