Last day of the warmth for now!

 Surface chart radar and infrared satellite

Radar shows the snow and mix just to our north in Canada. This is associated With a area of low pressure Up over Michigan. We have a warm front lifting through our region Which has us in the warm sector. Associated with that warm front we have rain showers in parts of the region. On the surface chart we can also see a trailing cold front out west that will be coming through late  tonight and tomorrow.   With all the dynamics in place We have a threat for strong  severe thunderstorms This afternoon into tonight.

We have a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in the area of organized thunderstorms Over Illinois. An MCV is a small area of low pressure in the mid levels; that can enhance convective (thunderstorm) development.

Today's severe weather threat

We're likely going to see a few lines of thunderstorms develop and move through the region today. These lines will be capable of strong to damaging wind gust. So we will have to be on the lookout for bow echoes that develop within the line that would indicate the areas where damaging winds are very possible. Damaging wind gust will be the main danger today from these thunderstorms But hail will also be an issue. The setup also supports the possibility of embedded tornadoes within the line of thunderstorms. This would make any isolated tornadoes that pop up, possibly rain wrapped, making them more dangerous, as you couldn't see them. Our severe season is starting early. So it would be a good idea to buy a NOAA weather alert radio. So that you would be notified of impending severe weather in your area. Winds are gonna become breezy to windy later today.

The most likely time for severe weather will be this afternoon into this evening. 

Here is an image from the latest mesoscale discussion from the SPC talking about the possibility of a tornado watch being issued.

MD 214

Click the link to view the discussion.

Today is going to be the last day of the super warmth many of us have been enjoying. But the air over northern Maine is cold enough for there to be a mix Precipitation today That could result in 0.1That could result in 0.120.3" of ice. As the cold front comes through later tonight and tomorrow it is going to knock these temperatures back down to where they should be for this time of year. While it won't feel like February cold It will be a jolt to the system. As we've been accustomed to these warm temperatures. As the cold air comes in it's It's going to change the rain over to some snow showers For most of us the ground will be just too warm for Anything other than very minor accumulations if that. But downwind Of lake Ontario and lake Erie There could be some lake effect snow that develops This will be a specially true downwind of lake Ontario where 1-3 inches And maybe a little bit more than that in very localized areas. These bands should be very narrow.

Winds are gonna continue to be very gusty tomorrow. With gust the 30-40 miles an hour plus possible. 

With all the warm temperatures melting the remaining snow pack and the incoming waves of rain. It's going to increase the flood risk for area streams and rivers. Several parts of New York State and Vermont are currently under flood watches.

We're going to have a clipper pass to our north Later friday into friday night, A front will come through across New York State into New England. With the front, there will likely be snow showers That lead to the possibility of some accumulating  snow for  New York State into northern and central New England. This will be especially true in the higher elevations like the Adirondacks where moderate accumulations will be possible. General accumulations look to be D-2 inches south of the I-90 in New York. With 2-4 inches north of the thruway and across northern new England. As I said the higher elevations like the tug hill Adirondacks and Greens have a chance to see 4-8 inches of snow.  Accumulations will be very dependent on elevation. Lingering rain showers and snow showers will be possible across the region on Saturday

Over the weekend our temperatures are likely  to turn  slightly below average for this time of year. 

Another system will be rolling through for Sunday into Monday.   This is going to bring more northern snow and southern parts of the region most likely see rain. 

Over at least the next couple of weeks We're going to get back on that typical early spring temperature rollercoaster. These waves of cold Are going to be partially associated with the polar vortex. That I've been talking about for the last couple of weeks. These waves are cold Are going to work together to try and extend the cold to the south.