Feels like summer

 Surface chart and radar

Today is much warmer than it was yesterday. But the warmth is going to trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Looking at the surface chart we can see that stationary frontal boundary Sitting over Northern New York State into New England. this boundary Is it gonna rain semi stationary as it meanders over the region.  We have several disturbances Moving along this frontal boundary . The first is over the Ohio Valley and is advancing east. This is going to set off scatter rain showers and thunderstorms. Unlike the other warm ups we've seen. This one is going to be accompanied by atmospheric moisture and we're going to feel those higher dew points. Helping all of this will be high pressure sitting off the Southeast Coast.

Ahead of the cold front we are going to have a prefrontal boundary move across the region. With the warm unstable air and higher dew points the prefrontal will set off some thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening. As I said some of these will be strong too severe. Yesterday I said the storm prediction center (SPC) would likely upgrade and expand the severe threat over the region and they have indeed done so.

The storm protection centers Connective outlook for today and tomorrow

Today

Look at the day 1 chart We can see there is a Slight Risk for severe weather over Eastern New York State into Western and Central New England. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms over Western New York State all of Pennsylvania down into Maryland, Delaware and Northern New Jersey. The Marginal Risk also extends across the rest of Southern  New England.

The main risk is going to be isolated strong damaging winds,, moderate to large hai. There will also be heavy downpours, frequent lightning. There is a low risk for some tornadoes.

Any Sun we see today will increase the risk for severe storms.

The clouds, higher dewpoints and the southern flow, will keep tonight very warm. There will also be a chance for some thunderstorms during the overnight. But these should be more garden variety and non severe

Tomorrow

 Wednesday is gonna be even warmer than today is that warm southern flow  drags in more moisture from the Gulf. these very warm temperatures and high dew points are going to be with us through Thursday.  Don't be surprised if you're dealing with some fog Wednesday morning.

Tomorrow that boundary up over northern New York State is  going to drop south a bit.As our next disturbance moves across the boundary the severe threat will be a little further south than it is today. The SPC has a Marginal Risk across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. The Slight Risk is over Southwest Pennsylvania and Southern Pennsylvania. Again the main risk will be the chance for isolated damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. There will also be the risk for frequent lightning and a chance for some tornadoes especially across western parts of Pennsylvania.

Thursday is going to be basically a rinse and repeat; as that frontal boundary continues to meander around. For Friday a slightly stronger cold front will approach and drop through with a disturbance riding along the boundary. Again this will bring the chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Saturday we are going to see a trough hanging around the region that's going to keep things rather unsettled. Then on Sunday a much stronger cold front is going to drop across the region. With the front we are going to see rain and some thunderstorms. Behind this front we're going  to see the end to all these warm temperatures, as much colder than average air moves back in over the region. Along with the cold we will have to reintroduce the risk for some snow. This will be especially true across New York State and Northern into Central New England especially in those higher elevations.