A Ring Of Fire!

 

I’ve been talking over the last few days about the high-pressure ridge heat dome that is going to be setting up. Currently the feature that is going to cause this is over the Northern Pacific.

This will build a deep trough in western North America with steep ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of North America. This is going to bring a lot of heat into the Midwest, Southern Plains and Southeast.

 

The high-pressure ridge is going to be a heat dome bringing a multiday heat wave that’s going to impact the Plains and Midwest. Some of this heat is going to extend east into the Northeast and Coastal US.  

Under the dome there is going to be widespread upper 80’s and well into the 90’s. With the southern Plains getting into the 100’s. Heat indexes (combination of heat and dew points) are going to be extremely uncomfortable. As I said in the earlier post very hot temperatures and humid conditions in parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will be oppressive early next week. For much of next week, the core of the heat is likely to be centered over the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.  While the Northeast will be on the edge, some of that heat in the Midwest is going to extend into Western Pennsylvania and Western New York State. It will be a bit cooler across the rest of the Northeast.

The heat dome will drift back west as we get past the fourth of July and will likely basically sit there as we head toward the middle of July.  Something else I said in the last couple of post about this, we’re likely to see rounds of ridge-riding thunderstorms mesoscale convective systems (organized thunderstorms) and even mesoscale convective complexes (special type of MCS that is a large, circular, long-lived cluster of showers and thunderstorms) and possibly some derechos (fast-moving clusters of thunderstorms with destructive winds), rotate around the rim of the ring of fire impacting areas of the Upper Midwest, Northeast into the Middle Atlantic. So, there is a chance for some active severe weather in this pattern.

The Tropics

There’s nothing really going on in the Atlantic tropics right now. Currently the tropical environment is unsupportive. There are rumors of something trying to form off the Southeast Coast. But I think the odds of this becoming anything tropical are very low.  As we move forward in time the conditions in the Atlantic Basin will become somewhat more favorable for development with lower wind shear and less dry air. But even with that, I don’t think we’re going to see anything tropical develop over the next 7 days to maybe 10 days.

The National Hurricane Center agrees with this assessment.  

 

 

Have a great night!