06/17/2025

 

A day closer to summer

Today is gonna be similar to what it was Yesterday. But we could see more in a way of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region and it will be slightly warmer and a bit more humid than it was on Monday. Here's a look at the current surface chart and radar.

We can see we still have that stationary boundary to the south and we have some isolated to scattered showers over southern new England down into New Jersey , Delaware and Maryland. Other than that skies across  the region will be overcast with drizzle and a few isolated showers, As I said above, the rain will be a little more widespread than it was yesterday.

Looking at the infrared satellite image.

Image credit tropical tidbits

We have a couple of systems that are going to be affecting our weather. The first is that  system in the northern plains heading towards the Great Lakes, the second is over the eastern Plains  and tracking east-northeast. As these get closer they will interact with that stalled out boundary forcing  it to slowly lift north as a warm front. As this goes on we will start to see the  cloud cover thin out with maybe a few breaks of sun south to north this afternoon. Temperatures and humidity will also be increasing as the frontal boundary moves north. As the front lifts north we will see scattered showers break out across southern Pennsylvania and Maryland along with a chance for isolated thunderstorms, some of these could be on the stronger side.

Yesterday I mentioned PWAT Values and how they will be high enough to cause some flooding issues across parts of the region. 

For Wednesday as the warm front continues to lift north expect rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures across the region are also going to be hotter with a noticeable increase in humidity levels. Again some of these storms will be strong too severe.

The hot and humid air is gonna continue to stream in the region on Thursday, then a cold front is going to slam into the hot and muggy air mass, setting off widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Some of these storms are going to be strong too severe.

The storm prediction center does have a Slight Risk for severe weather across western New England, eastern/central New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, into Maryland and Delaware. Right now those with the best chance for seeing more in the way of widespread severe weather will be northern New York State, northern Vermont,  New Hampshire into Maine. South of there the severe storms will be more isolated. 

The greatest danger, will be strong damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. The tornado risk is low but not zero. The best time for severe storms will be from 2PM until 10PM.

Thursday night into Friday morning the cold front will be pushing east across New England, Exiting Maine by the afternoon. There will still be a chance for lingering showers From west to east with clearing from west to east. Does summer solstice will start Friday at 10:41 PM. Saturday will be cooler with less humidity, as high pressure approaches. But that low pressure area moving out of the great lakes into Canada could cause some isolated showers across new northern New York State. Sunday the high pressure will still be overhead with a trough well to our north that could kick off a few showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm here and there. But The big story will be it getting noticeably hotter with more humidity moving in. 

We're going to see the Bermuda high take over the pattern early next week; this will usher in a steep ridge with a southwest flow, allowing heat and high humidity into the North Atlantic region and Northeast. 

Image credit tropical tidbits.

By Monday Temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s will be prevalent across the region dew points are going to be in the 70s so it's going to feel very hot and humid ,with heat indexes in the 90s into a triple digits. Tuesday will be more of the same. Wednesday Should see the heat starting to loosen its grip But it's still gonna be quite warm. For some areas of the region this could be the first real heat wave of the season.

06/16/2025

I hope everyone had a nice Father's Day weekend.

When we look at the current surface chart. 

We can see we're still dealing with that stall out front of boundary just to our south.

So today is gonna be a carbon copy of what we saw yesterday. So expect New York state and new England To be mostly dry With partly cloudy skies with only a chance for stray  shower here and there.  Across Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware into New Jersey expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies isolated rain showers and drizzle. Radar is deceiving cause it's not picking up all the drizzle.

But rain could be moderate to heavy at times for this reason there are flood watches out for Southwest Pennsylvania and western Maryland.  These are the same areas that we're dealing with flash flooding over weekend.

A disturbance in the upper midwest and northern plains is going to head towards the Great Lakes. This will be responsible for a lot of severe weather in the central/northern Plains into the midwest today and tomorrow. The severe threat will be moving into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys on Wednesday.

 

For most of us Tuesday is gonna be very similar to today, as a weak low pressure trough moves through, so rain could be a bit more widespread. Then later Tuesday the stalled frontal boundary is gonna start to move back north as a warm front. As the front moves north warm moist air will move north behind it. So temperatures across parts of Pennsylvania into the middle Atlantic could be slightly warmer than they are today.  There could be scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with the frontal passage, but nothing should be really severe. For Wednesday the front will continue to push north across the region sun will start to break out across the region With this  you will notice temperatures being much warmer Than they were for the first part of the week. Again there will be a chance for some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.  There is a chance for a few of these to be on the strong severe side This will be especially true across western Pennsylvania into southwestern New York State. Some of these could stay strong as they push east into central Pennsylvania.

The second half of this week into next week is going to see the heat and humidity start to push back into our region. 

Precipitable Water (PWAT)

It's a way of determining the amount of atmospheric moisture at a certain point and time.

PWAT is very important when forecasting. But what is? It is the depth of a specific volume of water vapor in a  column of air, if it were to become completely condensed, and how much of that would fall as condensed precipitation. It would be like if you squeezed a sponge that was completely saturated with water and how  you would see all  that water fall to the ground. So it gives us an idea where the heaviest rain and chance for flooding exist.

On Thursday we will see a cold front associated with the disturbance over the Great Lakes move into the region. This cold front will be moving into a very warm and humid air mass. Temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s with dew points in the 70s. 

This will create an unstable air mass overhead. The timing of the cold front will be critical as to who sees any severe weather. Based on what the speed looks like right now. There's gonna be a good chance for severe weather across central and eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland. There is a chance this severe weather could make it into southeast New York State but I'm not sold on the idea yet. The prime time For any severe weather would be roughly 2-9 PM. Based on how things look right now the biggest danger is going to be strong straight line damaging winds and the chance for heavy downpours. The storm prediction center (SPC) has outlined a rare 15% on Day 4 for a chance for severe weather.

Behind the front we will clear out and temperatures will cool off for Friday and Saturday As a secondary trough moves across the region .Then on Sunday we're going to see a strong ridge building in from the south with hot temperatures for a large part of the region for Sunday, Monday into Tuesday. Wednesday could still be hot but temperatures should be starting to decline.

06/13/2025

 It's Friday the 13th!

Here is the current surface chart and radar image.

We can see the stationary front setting over the Mason Dixon line with isolated showers over most of the region. But we do  have more In the way of widespread scattered showers over part of northern New York State extending into central New England. So today will feature low clouds, mostly scattered to isolated light rain showers and drizzle with temperatures that are slightly below average. I can't rule out a few heavier downpours and maybe a rogue thunderstorm over Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware But those will be more of an exception than anything. 

Over the Father's Day weekend we will be dealing with a few waves of low pressure and shortwave troughs that will keep things unsettled,  bringing isolated to scattered rain showers and maybe just a few thunderstorms. But the atmosphere set up doesn't really support these thunderstorms. But I'll just throw them in just in case. For the most part these showers will be light and won't hang around for a long time So if you have outdoor activities and cookouts planed, just keep an eye on the sky and have an umbrella handy just in case. For Saturday and Sunday The greatest chance for seeing rain will be from the New York Southern Tier and point south. Over the next few days winds will be quite breezy. So while it might not be great for the beach it won't be too bad I guess.

Monday will feature another area low pressure riding the frontal boundary just to our south. This will keep the weather unsettled with scattered to isolated rain showers and a chance for a few thunderstorms here and there. Tuesday will feature a trough moving through the region keeping things unsettled. Then Tuesday night and Wednesday another cold front come through bringing with it the chance for scattered showers and some thunderstorms. The cold front stalls for Thursday things will be unsettled with temperatures north and west of the boundary cooler than those south and east of the boundary. Next week temperatures are generally looking to be  average too above average with humidity levels starting to creep up.

The tropics

It's been a little bit since I talked about the tropics. But to be fair there really hasn't been anything to talk about. 

For those of y'all Who don't know, The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is made of hot, dry and dusty air that comes  off the Sahara desert and drifts west across the Atlantic basin. The SAL absorbs solar radiation making it hard for thunderstorms to develop. It also cuts off the moisture over the Atlantic and alters the atmospheric setup over the Atlantic, interfering with tropical cyclone development. We can see that in this SAL image.

Wind shear is also very high across the main development region of the Atlantic basin.

All the dust, dry air and high wind shear over the Atlantic is the reason everything is so quiet right now.

So while we will have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean into the Bay of Campeche. The conditions over the Atlantic basin should keep everything quiet for at least the next couple of weeks.

My next post will be on Monday. So I want to wish all the fathers and those doing the job and stepping up, a happy Father's Day!

06/12/2025

 

Today's surface map.

The southwestern flow ahead of the weak cold frontal boundary over New York State into New England Is bringing  above average temps and higher levels of humidity for area south and east of the boundary. While north and west of the boundary the west -northwest winds will mean temperatures will be slightly below average to average, with comfortable humidity levels. Those north of the front also have a chance for a few isolated rain showers.The front will be weakening as it continues to drop south. By the time it gets into Pennsylvania this evening There shouldn't be much left of it. But It could bring a few rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two for parts of Pennsylvania into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.

That Canadian wildfire smoke is still going to be causing issues today, The smoke Smoke will cause a haze in the sky. Air quality will be basically moderate with a chance for some of the smoke to reach the surface from time to time. So those with breathing issues and heart conditions might want to limit time outdoors. 

Tomorrow is gonna see the cold front stall over Pennsylvania and across New Jersey with this, will be a chance for scattered rain showers and very isolated thunderstorms across Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic and New Jersey. The thunderstorms should be garden variety as the setup doesn't support severe weather. The showers across  New York State and New England should be isolated.  Parts of the region will still be experiencing moderate  air quality issues.

Over the Father's Day weekend 

The northern half of New York State and northern New England  could be completely dry But I can't rule out a chance for a few isolated showers here and there. But that should be the extent of it. The southern half of New York State and central into southern New England will have a chance for a few showers and and maybe a few thunderstorms. Those with the greatest chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be across Pennsylvania (especially southern Pennsylvania) Maryland , Delaware into New Jersey as y'all will be closer to the stalled out front. The Father's Day weekend won't be a washout and showers should be fairly short lived. So just keep an eye on the sky if you're gonna be doing outdoor activities and barbecues.

Monday we'll see low pressure approach along  frontal boundary and move through bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. For Tuesday and Wednesday shortwave troughs will be moving through bringing a threat for  scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Bringing scattered rain showers On Thursday a cold front will move to bringing widespread scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Overall temperatures and humidity levels for next week look to be higher than they are this week. 

06/11/2025

 Monday 's severe weather included two tornadoes.

 The National Weather Service confirmed a EF0  with maximum winds of 75 mph touched down near Limestone in Clarion County Pennsylvania. The tornado tracked almost a quarter of a mile with a width of 25 yards.

The National weather service also confirmed a EF1 tornado with winds of 110 miles an hour, Track Length of 2.4 miles with a maximum width of 600 yards, near the town of Great Valley in Western New York State. This high-end EF1 damaged several houses and uprooted many trees.

I guess there was another tornado Yesterday in Beekmantown in Clinton County New York. This was confirmed to be a EF0 with 75 mph winds. It had a track of half a mile with a width around 100 yards.

Here's a look at current surface chart and radar.

The surface chart and radar shows yesterday's cold front has pushed South and east with no rain anywhere across the region,As high pressure is setting up. The frontal boundary is up in Canada. So today will be mostly  dry and is gonna feature seasonal temperatures and  humidity. But the humidity will start increasing tonight and temperatures will stay mild. I can't rule out a few very isolated showers across northern New York state into new England, but those will be the exception to the rule.

The big issue today is going to be Canadian wildfire smoke. As the west to northwest flow brings it in out of western Canada. The smoke is gonna be like what we experienced over the weekend, it Will create breathing issues for hose who are sensitive. We could smell some of the smoke from time to time.

Smoke  will be overhead tomorrow as well, so there will be air quality issues. Tomorrow will also see the heat return. There will be a weak frontal boundary Beginning to drop out of Canada and hanging over New York state over into new England this could be the focus for a few isolated rain showers mainly  across the southern tier of New York State into far northern Pennsylvania. But the vast majority of us should be dry. Looking at the infrared satellite image we can see the clear skies past the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. But it does show a disturbance in the Northern Plains that will become the focus of our weather here in the Northeast later this week. As for temperatures across the region, North of the boundary temperatures will be running seasonal with those  south of the boundary seeing above average temperatures.

Low pressure and a cold front will be approaching and dropping south on Friday. Rain and thunderstorms will be dropping south with the front. Rain and some thunderstorms Looks to drop south across most of New York State, Northern and central new England Late afternoon/evening on Friday could be heavy at times. The rain and thunderstorms look to make it into Boston,  New York city, Philadelphia Friday night, again rain could be heavy at times. scattered rain will continue on Saturday but it won't be a complete washout. Then for Sunday as the low pressure and cold front continue to drop south Much of New York state And new England should have a mainly dry Father's Day Sunday. But further south across Pennsylvania into the middle Atlantic Father's Day will likely still be experiencing scattered rain. As the front looks to stall over Southern Pennsylvania into central and southern New Jersey. Because of the stalled nature of the frontal boundary and disturbances rippling along it Monday and Tuesday will likely continue to be unsettled across parts of Pennsylvania and the  northern Middle Atlantic. Later Tuesday and Wednesday High pressure will be setting up overhead, keeping us mostly dry with seasonal temperatures. Then on Thursday another disturbance will be approaching.

06/10/2025

 Likely tornado in western New York yesterday and stormy weather today.

The surface chart and radar show the heavy rain and enbedded  thunderstorms are ahead of the cold front that sitting back over New York State Pennsylvania.

 

Satellite shows clearing over western parts of the region as the cold front continues to slide east towards New England.  This clearing will continue today and into tonight.

Behind the front humidity levels are lowering ; as breezy winds push it out. But  out ahead of the front It is still going to be muggy. We have a secondary cold front moving in out of the great lakes in Canada This will be the focus for rain showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over Delaware, New Jersey, southeast New York State Including part of the Hudson Valley extending into western New England. The main dangers from these storms will be the chance for damaging winds, heavy rain Flooding issues Some hail And frequent lightning. As was the case yesterday the tornado risk is very low but not zero.

For Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as the high pressure stays in charge; the region looks to be mainly dry with temperatures undergoing a warming trend. We will be dealing with that weak frontal boundary I talked about yesterday. Wednesday and Thursday will remain  breezy. The boundary is going to divide the seasonal temperatures north of it from the slightly above average temperatures south of it. It will also be the focus of some isolated rain showers and thunderstorms for those near the boundary. 

The boundary will be meandering over New York State and New England for Wednesday and Thursday, For Wednesday Most of the region should be dry, but there will be a chance for isolated rain showers. Thursday we'll see the chances for rain increase slightly Across the southern tear of New York State and the northern tier of Pennsylvania into parts of the Middle Atlantic as the front looks to stall Thursday over the southern tier and of New York State before undergoing more of a southern shift on Friday. Northern New York state and northern new England as well as Southern half of Pennsylvania into the middle of Atlantic Should be dry Wednesday and Thursday.

The front looks to continue sliding south on Saturday before stalling again, as another area of low pressure approaches.  Rain showers could make it into western Pennsylvania And maybe western New York State during the day.

Sunday is going to see high pressure nosing in from the Atlantic. How strong the high pressure remains and how far west it extends will determine the scope and extent of rain coverage. So for now Sunday looks To feature rain showers over western parts of the region, with the eastern part of the region looking to be fairly dry. Rain could be heavy over western Pennsylvania and western New York State, along with thunderstorms. The low pressure will continue to push into the region on Monday bringing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms to the region. Rain could be very heavy at times. Tuesday is going to feature a few shortwave troughs moving through the region keeping things a bit unsettled. 

06/09/2025

 Cool cloudy and unsettled!

We have a warm front moving over western Pennsylvania into western New York State, along with a piece of low pressure sitting off the Mid Atlantic Coast, All of this is creating an onshore flow that's increasing the amount of clouds and adding to the showers. The radar image shows scattered rain showers and some embedded thunderstorms over New York State into New England, ahead of the warm front. As the rain continues to move north and east, rain will become much more isolated ahead of the front. The further away from the coast you are the better your chance of maybe seeing some sunshine breakout from time to time. For most of New York State, central and eastern Pennsylvania into the northern middle Atlantic this afternoon and evening should be mainly dry with the best chance for isolated showers up over New England, especially the further east you go.

The surface chart also shows the trailing cold front approaching that's attached to the trough of low pressure that is over the Upper Plains and Great Lakes. Rain associated with the cold front is getting close to western parts of our region. Ahead of the front Isolated showers and thunderstorms will move into western Pennsylvania and western New York State later this afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong too severe. The storm prediction center has western Pennsylvania into the Finger Lakes at a Slight Risk For severe weather,  with a Marginal Risk over western New York State and much of Pennsylvania.

The biggest danger from the line of thunderstorms that could develop will be damaging wind, hail and heavy downpours. The tornado risk is low but not zero. The widespread steady rain will move into western areas this evening. As the rain moves eastward it should reach central parts of New York State late this afternoon into the evening. Again some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe. We have an inversion layer overhead so some of the thunderstorms could be loud.

These fronts are slow moving So the rain should get into eastern New York state New England Maryland Delaware and New Jersey tonight and to tomorrow morning. Some of the storms could be on the storm too severe side The SPC has a Marginal Risk over part of the Middle Atlantic. Again the thunder could sound rather loud.

During Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure will be building into the region. As the cold front continues to push east we will see clearing develop Tuesday west to east with rain ending.  For Wednesday Thursday and Friday temperatures will become warm but we will be dealing with a nearby frontal boundary that will be meandering around over New York State and New England  will provide a chance for isolated rain showers But the vast majority of us shouldn't see too much in the way of rain. The closer you are to the boundary the greater chance of seeing rain. 

On Saturday the frontal boundary will move south as a cold front Increasing the risk For scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for the Southern Tier of New York State, Southern New England into Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic. Sunday is looking to be mainly dry for most of us but those closer to where the front sets up will have a chance for some rain showers and thunderstorms. Then on Monday another area of low pressure will move through.Bringing rain showers and a chance for thunderstorms cooler weather to start next week.

I've been asked  when will we see  prolonged heat? My answer is we might not see too much in the way of that type of heat. I touched on this in the summer outlook. Looking at the 500 millibar anomaly from tropical tidbits we can see these upper level lows and troughs continuing as we move through June. This is the pattern I was talking about in the summer outlook So the idea of staying somewhat relatively cool this summer shouldn't be a surprise. When I look ahead I see some heat that will stick around for a few days, then being followed by A few days to maybe a week or so of  cooler than average temperatures. Given what the pattern looks like moving forward, heat waves might be hard to come by, as it may be hard to get three consecutive hot days.

06/06/2025

 Still still dealing with the unsettled weather with severe potential.

Today The storm prediction center (SPC) has  central and southern new England, central to southeast New York State, much of Pennsylvania and western Maryland under a  Marginal Risk for severe weather. They do have an area of Slight Risk for much of Massachusetts.

Today we're still dealing with the frontal boundary. As the nearly stationary cold front crawls across the region.

Looking at the surface chart and radar The cold front is basically stalled over Northwest Pennsylvania, New York state into central New England. The radar shows rain and thunderstorms near the frontal boundary. Those ahead of the front will have another hot humid day under hazy skies. As the front inches forward we will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be strong too severe. With the biggest danger being strong gusty winds, small to moderate size hail and some heavy downpours that could lead to some localized flooding. There is also a risk for frequent vivid lightning; so those who get under some of these thunderstorms could see a decent light show.

Tonight and  tomorrow the front will move over southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware and then later Saturday into Sunday morning the front will stall out just to our south and off the coast. 

Tomorrow much of the region will be at risk for garden variety thunderstorms. But the SPC Does have a Marginal Risk for severe weather for southeast Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey and points south. The main threat will be strong damaging winds and some hail. Rain could be heavy at times.

The front will push the heat and humidity out of the region. But across Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic region the reprieve will be a short one, Later Sunday Into Sunday night The front will start to lift back north as a warm front bringing  scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms back for southern Pennsylvania, Maryland Delaware, and southern New Jersey. across New York State and New England, Saturday afternoon through Sunday should be dry to mostly dry, with seasonal temperatures and humidity levels. Sunday night into Monday Clouds will be increasing south to north.There Will be a slight chance for some showers Far north of central New York State Into southern New England  late Sunday evening/night. Then late Sunday night into Monday as the area low pressure gets closer the warm front will continue to lift north and east across the region, with the greatest risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms being closer to the front of boundaries as it lists north, areas south of the boundary could have a fairly dry Monday with only a chance for some isolated showers.  Some of the storms on Monday could be strong too severe. But right now the severe threat looks rather limited. Monday night into Tuesday morning a cold front will be approaching. The cold front is going to slice through later Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. Bringing the risk for widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. High pressure will approach and move in for Wednesday most of the region should be fairly dry. The same as  true for Thursday, but a disturbance will be passing to our north so those across northern New York State and northern New England could see some showers and maybe a few isolated thunderstorms. Then for Friday high pressure is back in control providing a dry day.