06/30/2025

 We made it to the last day of June and July is almost here.

The surface chart shows high pressure sitting over the Northeast.  The system moving into the Ohio valley, with the leading warm front. We also have that stationary front sitting over the northern middle Atlantic region Back in to Pennsylvania; that is going to start to move north today as a warm front. Ahead of the stationary boundary dew points are in the 60s; but south of the boundary we have a tropical air mass in place with dew points in the mid 70s.

The radar shows rain showers ahead of the approaching warm front,  we are gonna see rain breakout as that stationary boundary starts to slowly move north. Today we're going to have a southern flow that is going to pump the heat and humidity over the region. As these approach and through we will see scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms develop over Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey this afternoon, . Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe with the main danger being strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. With the setup that is in place there will be a risk for localized flooding, due to slow moving thunderstorms. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center convective outlook, with a Marginal Risk for severe weather over Pennsylvania back down into the Middle Atlantic. Up over New York state and New England There will be quite a bit of sun, then clouds will start building late this afternoon into the evening as all this works its way north. New York State into New England can expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening. I can't rule out a few of these being on the strong side, with gusty winds and heavy downpours the main danger. As the warm front advances the risk for a few thunderstorms will extend into and through the overnight. Temperatures won't cool too much tonight keeping it uncomfortable and muggy.

Tomorrow We'll start out hot then a prefrontal trough ahead.of the cold front will swing through, bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong, with the risk being damaging winds, frequent lightning, very heavy downpours and maybe some hail. The tornado risk is low but not zero. Those with the greatest risk of seeing severe storms will be the eastern half of New York State into New England and the Middle Atlantic. The best timing for any severe weather will be during the afternoon and through the evening. Here is the convective outlook From the SPC on tomorrow's severe chances, we can see most of the region is under a Marginal Risk .But we do have a Slight Risk over the northern Middle Atlantic, including the I -95 corridor between New York City and Washington DC.

A cold front will swing through Wednesday.  With the front we can expect isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.  A secondary cold front will move through on Thursday Again this will bring the risk for rain showers and some thunderstorms. Behind the front, seasonal temperatures and lower dew points will move in for July 4th into the coming weekend. Sunday we will see an approaching cold frontal boundary. That will be dropped out of the Great Lakes and Canada. Ahead of the cold front there could be a few isolated rain showers  over parts of northern New York State  back down through western NYS and northwest Pennsylvania. The actual cold front will swing through on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Tropical Storm Barry.

 In spite of me saying there was a very very slight chance that a tropical depression would form in the Bay of Campeche, due to moderate to high wind shear over the region. Surprisingly we have tropical storm Barry just off the East Coast of Mexico. Barry follows Andrea which formed west of the Azores June 24th. 

TS Barry Is moving northwest at 6 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1006MB with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. Sea surface temperatures Car around 84° Fahrenheit, Bought berries limited time over the open water should prevent any other development. Barry looks to make a land call close to Tampico Mexico later today or tonight.  Then he will move inland into Mexico, where he could linger for a couple of days before dissipating. Mexico can expect 3-6 "of rain, with localized amounts of 10-12" possible out of Barry bringing the danger of flooding and mudslides. Moisture from Barry is going to drift north and impact Texas. 1 to 1.5 inches of rain Are likely for places like South Padre island and Galveston. Further inland away from the coast 3⁄4" to 1/2". Houston into the rest of northern Texas could see 1/2" to 1/4". 

There is another area in the northwest Gulf over towards Florida that has to be watched. The National Hurricane center (NHC)  is giving this area a 20% chance of development, over the next couple of days.The next name on the list is Chantel.

06/29/2025

 Post on the end of June into July.

Here is the current 500 mb pattern over North America, courtesy of tropical tidbits. I was talking about this last week. We can see the trough dropping out of Canada, we have that big red developing out west. Here in the Eastern US we can see that monster ridge we had just a few days ago is gone.

As the trough and shortwave continue to drop in; it will have an impact on our weather by midweek. Today most of the region Is experiencing season temperatures with moderate humidity, behind a cold front pushing east. But the Mid Atlantic Including the I-95 corridor Between New York City and Washington DC will be much warmer.

Tomorrow as that trough continues to approach, we're gonna see a ridge start to build here in the Northeast. This will allow our temperatures and humidity levels to increase.

Currently we have sun building from the west and southwest As high pressure Builds  in. So areas under the clouds now in New York State into New England will see some sun this afternoon.

So all in all not a bad day with generally seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures. This will change by tomorrow when we'll see higher temperatures and a noticeable increase in humidity. With the higher dew point the feel like (heat index) temperature will be uncomfortable. Looking  back at the surface chart, the system associated with the shortwave out over the northern and central Plains; will be dropping south and east. Tomorrow we will see isolated to scattered rain showers develop and move across New York State and Pennsylvania; there will be isolated thunderstorms as well. Some of the storms tomorrow will be strong to severe. The main danger will be damaging wind gust, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Some hail is also possible. The tornado risk will be very low but  as is always the case in these kind of situations it is never  zero. The best timing for any severe weather will be 2PM through 9 or 10PM. Those were the greatest risk of seeing the severe weather will be across eastern/southeastern New York State, Pennsylvania and into New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware tomorrow evening  into tomorrow night.

Tuesday as the actual cold front swings through we will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. There will be a greater chance for severe storms. Again the main threat will be Strong damaging winds heavy downpours and some hail. 

Wednesday and Thursday we'll see high pressure approach and move in overhead. Thursday a week disturbance will pass through that could set off some rain showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms; but the majority of us should stay dry. July 4 friday is looking to be dry, with cooler temperatures and lower humidity behind the cold front. Right now The high pressure looks to stick around for Saturday into Sunday providing nice weather for the weekend.

06/27/2025

A little bit of everything.

This post will be a bit long as I'm going to cover a lot of topics.

Looking at the weather for the next 5-7 days.

The monster ridge that caused all the heat and humidity continuing to break down. At the same time we're going to see a big ridge develop over the western part of north America. As the eastern ridge continues to relax we are going to see the flow return to more of a typical west to east flow over the northern CONUS. This type of pattern is going to have implications for our region as we move further into the summer.

Here is a look at the surface/radar chart.

We can see high pressure sitting out over Maine into the Gulf of Maine with the back door cold front pushed south and basically stationary to our south and west. The region should see quite a bit of cloudiness with some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Generally the region is going to be cool.

Later tonight and into Saturday that stationary front is going to start to move north and east. Allowing for temperatures to warm up quite a bit, but humidity won't be super high. Then a weak cold front will drop through bringing widely scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms along with it, some of the thunderstorms back over the eastern part of New York state into eastern Pennsylvania and parts of the Northern Middle Atlantic could be on the strong side. The main danger will be strong gusty winds.

The best timing for any severe weather during the afternoon and through the evening. How widespread thunderstorms are will depend on how sunny we get. If we stay  generally mostly cloudy, it will help limit the possibility of severe weather.

I don't want to oversell this, overall Saturday isn't looking too bad. Temperatures will start to warm , The rain looks to be hit and miss and many of us might not see much of  any rain at all. Sunday morning and much of the afternoon is looking like it's going to be dry to mainly dry across northern and western parts of the region. As the cold front continues to slide south and east, there will be a chance for some rain and thunderstorms late in the afternoon and into the evening over eastern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic.  But not everyone is going to see them. Neither Saturday or Sunday will be a wash out, so don't cancel your plans. Just keep your eyes on sky And be ready for The possibility of a shower or even a thunderstorm, Generally the showers or storms should only last for 15  to 30 minutes.

Then for Monday we're going to have a warm front lifting into the region. Followed by a cold front that will be drifting through the region For later Monday and Tuesday both days are going to feature a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best chance for more in the way of widespread thunderstorms will be on Tuesday and again some of these might be strong to severe. Both Wednesday and Thursday are looking to be generally sunny and dry. For July 4th Friday the region is generally looking to be dry, We have a week to see if that idea holds.

Looking out into the future.

When we start July we're going to see a big bridge developing in the western US At the same time We are going to be seeing a short wave that I've been talking about for at least a week now is going to develop in the central Canadian Prairies.Which is going to drop south and east across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This will be dragging a cold front through the Northeast and Middle Atlantic resulting in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will likely be strong to severe.

As we move through July; the southwest monsoon is going to become established. The monsoon is looking to be pretty strong. This is going to take moisture coming out of the Pacific and western Gulf of America and stream it northward. From here with the active zonal pattern this moisture is going to be shunted eastward. At the same time, we're going to have the Bermuda High in the Atlantic. As moisture circulates around it  from the Atlantic and Caribbean.This will likely pull moisture up the eastern seaboard.  With all the moisture streaming in, I do think the  Northeast and to some extent the Middle Atlantic region will see quite a bit of cloudiness along with many chances for rain and likely thunderstorms. The pattern I described when I started this post. Will help support stalled out frontal activity over the eastern CONUS increasing the likelihood Of rainfall over certain parts of the region.  With the northern flow staying active and how we look to see a return to more of a traditional Central ridge. I don't see support for any persistent heat in any one place. All this is signaling  generally overall coolness with some warm times in between cooler outbreaks. So for the region, I think overall temperatures for the month of July are going to end up being slightly below average. It looks like above average precipitation is likely. That doesn't mean you won't see some hot days. It just means that on the average things will be a bit coolish. 

When we look at the climate prediction centers 8-14 day outlooks we can see how they support the idea that I've just described above.

In the precipitation outlook, you can see all that moisture in the southwest due to the monsoon. It also shows the Eastern United States being slightly above average in rainfall.

The tropics

THE National Hurricane Center is monitoring the area near the Bay of Campeche.

Currently they're giving this 10% odds of developing into a tropical depression. The center of circulation is sitting over the Yucatan. General conditions do slightly support some development out of the system. We also have an area the National Hurricane Center is watching in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of Central America.

 This has a strong possibility of becoming Barry. It remains to be seen if the disturbance in the eastern pacific Interfere with any disturbance trying to form over the Bay of Campeche. I really don't support anything developing over the Bay of Campeche. But we will see. We do have that upper level low that is hanging around near Florida. This will have to be watched to see if anything tries to develop around the circulation. But generally there is still a lot of Dust How old would the Atlantic basin some of this is starting to work into the gulf of America. The dust will help keep the  Atlantic basin's main development  region quiet over the next 10-14 days. After that there is a chance that the Madden Julian Oscillation will become more favorable for rising air in the Atlantic basin. Leading to a chance for perhaps some tropical development occurring during the second half of July. But overall July should Rename remain fairly quiet.

A quick look at drought conditions.

We baked under the heat dome Many places saw their highest June temperatures on record. But despite the heat We had enough rain that it kept everything in check. In fact the moderate drought conditions in parts of the Middle Atlantic did slightly improve.

Have a great and safe weekend!

06/26/2025

 Saying goodbye to the heat

Here's the current surface/radar chart.

North of the boundary temperatures are much cooler and more comfortable than they have been. South of the boundary they're still dealing with the heat and the humidity.

The chart shows us scattered rain showers over New York State into New England sitting over Pennsylvania back through New Jersey. 

This afternoon there will be a chance for some isolated non severe thunderstorms up across New York state and new England But for those in Pennsylvania into the middle Atlantic there will be a better chance for thunderstorms closer to get frontal boundary. Some of these storms could be strong too severe. The main danger will be Strong damaging winds Frequent lightning and very heavy downpours. Here is a look at the day one convective outlook from the storm prediction center.

Tomorrow that frontal boundary may sag a little further south. Again those north of the boundary will be cooler and less humid with isolated to widely scattered showers and  isolated thunderstorms. The region as a whole should be able to completely say goodbye to the heat and humidity at least temporarily. The greater chance for scattered thunderstorms will be closer to that frontal boundary, closer to the southern parts of our region. Here is a look at the day two convective outlook.

Friday night and on Saturday the frontal boundary will start moving back North as a weak warm front. As the front slides north We will see isolated showers and some storms accompany it. Warmer temperatures and higher levels humidity will move north with it. But it won't be as hot and humid as it has been. 

Sunday we will see a cold front move into and through the region bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday We'll see the front stall out keeping things unsettled over the region. Another cold front will swing through on Tuesday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm. Some of the  storms could be strong to severe. Then for Wednesday and Thursday we may finally get a break from the unsettled weather; as high pressure sets up overhead

06/25/2025

 

The ridge is starting to break down. Looking at the 500 mb height anomaly courtesy of tropical tidbits. We can see it's not as extreme as it was.

Here is the current surface/radar chart.

We can see that cold front that is starting to drop out of Canada.As the ridge continues to fall apart and cooler air moves in a loft. It is going to increase our risk for thunderstorms. The cold front is going to slowly drop south. Those north of the front will see temperatures cooling off. South of the front will continue to see the hot temperatures and high humidity. With heat indexes in the upper 90s into the 100s. As the front drops into the hot tropical air mass. We will see rain showers and thunderstorms break out this afternoon into tonight. Some of these storms will be strong to severe. Here is a look at the current convective outlook from the storm prediction center.

We can see there is a marginal risk for severe weather across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. The risk will be strong damaging winds, frequent lightning, some hail and with all the moisture in the air heavy downpours can be expected. The front will continue to drop south into the middle Atlantic and I-95 corridor tonight into tomorrow. Here is a look at tomorrow's convective outlook.

With the the possibility of night time severe weather make sure you have a way to be alerted in case severe weather approaches your area. Any severe storm will be capable of damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours.

Tomorrow night The cold front is going to end up stalling out It will be hanging around Friday Into Saturday. So for Friday and Saturday We can expect rain showers and some thunderstorms. The storm shouldn't be severe. The front will have pushed the high temperatures and humidity out of here. Then on Saturday The stationary front is going to start to move back into the region as a warm front. As the front moves through we will see some widely scattered rain showers and maybe some thunderstorms. Sunday will see a cold front move through the region bringing the chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. We are going to heat back up for next week. But we're not going to have the monster ridge that caused the record breaking heat. We will have to watch a shortwave that's going to drop down out of the Canadian prairies and moving across the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. With a cold front that could set off the possibility of severe weather here in the Northeast. For Wednesday we should be dealing with high pressure overhead.

So next week it will feel like summer. But it won't be the super hot weather we've just gone through.

06/24/2025

 Welcome to another day of extreme Northeast heat, high humidity and lots of sun. As we're under this bubble of high heat, many of us are going to break record highs for this point in the year. The high heat and uncomfortable humidity is making for very high heat indexes. Already heat indexes are in the 90s°F to low 100s °F; It will only get hotter as the day goes on.

The surface chart shows the high pressure ridge That stretches over half of night states is centered right over our region. Radar shows no rain at the moment. Under the heat dome rain is going to be very isolated with perhaps a chance for isolated thunderstorms here or there.Those closer to the edge of the dome will have a better chance for isolated thunderstorms today. Any thunderstorm will be capable of heavy downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds. There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening. Especially across New York State into northern and central New England. These storms will be capable of damaging winds, medium to isolated large hail  and heavy downpours. Tonight will be another uncomfortable night for sleeping if you don't have an air conditioner.

Tomorrow is going to be another very hot day as a cold front approaches the region from the north. Temperatures Will be a degree or two lower, than they are today. As the front gets closer we will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening could be strong to severe with damaging winds moderate to isolated large hail and heavy downpours. Those with the greatest chance of seeing any severe storms will be across Pennsylvania, southern New England into the northern Middle Atlantic. Tomorrow night will still be another very warm night, with uncomfortable humidity ahead of the front. The cold front will continue to slowly push south Tomorrow night and on Thursday. Temperatures For Thursday and Friday will be cooler than they have been. What temperatures will still be above the seasonal average for this time of year.

Thursday night the cold front is going to stall. Then for Friday Saturday and Sunday We will still be under the influence of the frontal boundary continuing the chances for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Over the weekend into next week Temperatures will start to climb again But they won't be as hot as they Word for Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region next Tuesday.

06/23/2025

The severe weather for early morning.

 The mesoscale convective system (MCS) that was running around the outer  periphery of the heat dome over the Midwest. Ended up, dropping down across New York State and down across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the early hours of Sunday. The MCS caused quite a bit of wind damage across parts of northern New York State down through central New York State There was even a confirmed high-end EF1 tornado with winds of 105 mph; that touched down near Clark Mills, NY. Sadly 3 people were killed in Clark Mills. The thunderstorm complex also dropped medium to large hail in some places. The storm deposited a lot of rain; some areas ended up seeing  4-6  inches of rain in one hour, which led to lots of flash flooding.

Severe weather Is always dangerous Especially night time severe storms Always have a way to to be warned approaching severe storms. Always take warnings seriously!

What about this week.

For the 1st half of this week it's going to be sunny, hot and humid. Remember, heat is the biggest killer of any type of weather. I grew up in the Texas Panhandle where it gets extremely hot in the summer. The Northeast isn't accustomed to a lot of hot weather The heat that's coming in is going to be dangerous and nothing to be scoffed at!

We have the Bermuda High that's going to continue to pump heat into our region. Starting today, The region is going to be dominated by this monster ridge that's gonna be sitting over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic.  

As far as rain Under the dome we could have a chance for a few isolated showers and maybe a rogue thunderstorm but the vast majority of the region won't see any of that except sun and heat If you look up at the surface chart/radar You can see all the rain and storms rotating around that high pressure ridge/ heat dome.

The images shown above are only based on the GFS Other models are showing different temperatures But it gives a good general idea of what to expect. These temperatures could be getting hotter and what the model shows.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Both today and tomorrow we'll see high temperatures across the region in the upper 80s°F And through the 90s°F with some areas possibly seeing 100 Plus°F.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Dew points Are going to be in the 70s to possibly around 80s, for some. This is about as high as they can get for our region.

Image credit Pivotal weather

This will make for very high heat indexes. The region is going to see heat indexes run from 100-120°F. That is the feel like temperature So you want to take it seriously. The heat index is the air temperature and dew point added together.

Temperatures will start to back off on Wednesday, as the ridge drops a little south and west. But we're still gonna be dealing with this ridge where it will continue to influence our temperatures. It's going to start to breakdown as we get into the weekend So until then we will see above average temperatures for Wednesday Thursday and Friday.

As the ridge shifts we will reintroduce the chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches. The trough is going to enter out of Canada and move across our region. As storms rotate around that ridge/heat dome. Thunderstorms will likely be fairly isolated. Those with the greatest chance of seeing thunderstorms would be across the southern half of New York State Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic. But  a few rain showers and even some thunderstorms would be possible across the rest of the region. Thursday we once again see rain showers and thunderstorms  rotating around the ridge, as a trough sets up. Those with the greatest chance of seeing the scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Will be across New York State and Pennsylvania Into the Middle Atlantic. Elsewhere rain showers and thunderstorms would be more isolated. 

Some of the storms On Wednesday and Thursday could  be strong to severe. This will be especially true on Thursday as the cold front is moving through. The storms Wednesday night and on Thursday could be fairly widespread scattered thunderstorms. The timing of any storms would likely be 2PM through 8 or 9PM.  The cold front is going to stall for a bit and then start to push south on Friday. Finally kicking the humidity and high temperatures out of here.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday look to see the chances for scattered rain and some thunderstorms across the region, due to our proximity to the frontal boundary.  None of these days look to be a washout. The showers will be isolated to scattered. 

Remember to drink plenty of water and obey the hot weather safety rules during outside activities. Check on your neighbors and remember animals are as susceptible or even more to the heat as you are. 

Severe storms dropping out of Canada

 

Severe storms are dropping south and east out of Canada; as they rotate around the high pressure ridge, ring of fire. This is a mesoscale convective complex.Which is a type of mesoscale convective system that I talked about the other day. The system dropping out of Canada has a history of damaging winds, Downpours, and hail. 

The atmospheric conditions overhead are more than sufficient to support severe weather during the overnight across New York State into new England. The high dew point and temperatures will continue to destabilize the atmosphere, creating quite a bit of instability. There is a good chance the line will expand as it moves into our region. As this drops through New York State into New England we will see a line of severe thunderstorms move through during the overnight into Sunday morning. This will be capable of strong damaging winds with gusts of over 70 miles an hour possible, some frequent lightning, heavy downpours and medium to perhaps large hail will also be possible, but the large hail should be isolated.

Here is a look At the current convective outlook from the storm prediction center (SPC).

Image credit pivotal weather.

Night time severe weather is especially dangerous; because many people are sleeping. So have a way to be alerted if severe weather approaches your area.

Stay safe!

06/20/2025

 

The cold front responsible for all the severe weather yesterday Is off the coast, taking the heat and humidity with it. Today will be cool. But it won't last for long.

The summer solstice starts tonight at 10:41PM.

We look to see a mesoscale convective system (MCS) develop in the North Dakota and Minnesota tomorrow This will move east and then south and east as it rotates around that huge high pressure ridge of heat in the Plains. A MCS, is a large organized group of thunderstorms, that can last for several hours and travel hundreds of miles. MCS's can bring lots of rain and the risk of damaging winds, Hail and even some tornadoes can also be an issue. During the night MCS's can become very intense. This  could hold together for very early Saturday into Saturday morning, for this reason the storm prediction center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk on Saturday, for severe weather over the Great Lakes into New York State and northern Pennsylvania. This will be for the evening  into the night on Saturday, we could see more strong /severe storms associated with a warm front, but the main woody will be what's dropping in out of Canada across New York State into New England, as things rotate around the ridge.

The SPC does have a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Sunday for northern and eastern New York State into new England.

This will be due to strong and severe storms in the Upper Midwest forming and moving over the top of the heat ridge and then sliding down into the Northeast. The ridge over the Plains will push east over the weekend.

Heat and humidity will start to build back north on Saturday. By Sunday, Monday and Tuesday we will be completely under the heat dome. Which will be bringing the Northeast and Middle Atlantic region a lot of heat and humidity. Some of this could last into Thursday. Those under the ridge will have a chance for Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms; but those closer to and along the edge could stay active as systems continue to rotate around this huge dome.

Images courtesy of tropical tidbit

Image courtesy of pivotal weather.

This will be the hottest weather we've seen so far this year and be the and it will likely be a heat wave for many of us. So remember your hot weather safety tips Drink plenty of water,wear a hat, sunscreen and light colored clothing,try to limit your time outside and take plenty of breaks if you're going to be working out in the heat. Make sure you keep checking on children And if you have animals and pets Make sure they have plenty of water available and keep them cool.

As we get close to the end of June into the first bit of July, the ridge will be breaking down We will return to cooler weather at least for a while.

06/19/2025

 Today is going to be hot muggy and stormy.

Here is the surface chart and radar

Today is hot and humid and going to get even worse. The surface chart and radar show not a lot going over the region except for a few thunderstorms and showers moving toward southwest Pennsylvania And a lot of activity north of the Canadian  border closer to that warm front. But all this is about to change.

Ahead of the approaching cold front, we're going to see storms explode across the region.
Looking at the visible satellite We can see a lot of sun over eastern Pennsylvania into eastern New York State and southern New England

The sun is going to help things become very unstable as we move through the day Setting the groundwork Severe weather.

Here is today's convective outlook from the storm prediction center (SPC)

The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather extending across much of new England eastern  half of New York State down to eastern Pennsylvania. With an Enhanced Risk stretching from Southeast New York State all the way down Through the I95 corridor into Virginia. 

Today temperatures will be in the upper 70s into the mid 80s across western Pirates of the region. But further east temperatures will be in the mid 80s into the 90s with very high dew points. Ahead of the strong cold front Across western parts of the region late morning into the early afternoon. The storms will go west to east today into tonight.

 Western parts of the region will face more of an isolated severe threat but any storm that does form will be capable of becoming strong to severe. The main threat will be damaging wind and heavy downpours. Rain totals of half an inch to an inch, will be capable of producing Flooding this will be a specially true over the areas In southwest Pennsylvania into western Maryland that have seen all the rain. As the storms get further east this afternoon we will see more in the way of widespread severe weather across central New York State and central Pennsylvania and points east. This will be especially true for areas closer to an along the I-95 corridor. The storms across eastern Eastern New York State and the eastern half of Pennsylvania into New England and the northern Middle Atlantic will see strong to severe storms. Here the main risk will be strong damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours, leading to a flood risk; there is a bit of a tornado risk from Western Maine down through much of New England, Eastern half of New York State into eastern Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic.  The SPC has a risk at 2%. I still think the greatest chance will be over northern New York State and northern New England closer to the Saint Lawrence Valley, As they will be closer to that center of the upper level low pressure moving through Canada. 

Southeastern New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, into the northern Middle Atlantic including the I-95 corridor, will see the severe  risk late this afternoon and through the evening as that cold front approaches. For areas near and around the I-95 corridor I think there's an increased risk for Microburst.

We will probably see a broken line of storms develop this afternoon into the evening There is a strong likelihood that we'll see bowing segments in this line that will lead to the risk for damaging winds as the line moves through..

The front will continue to push east tonight and tomorrow morning And should be exiting the east coast of Maine by the afternoon. Tomorrow will be cooler with less humidity, There will be a weak trough moving through that could set off a few showers here and there but most parts should be dry. On Saturday we'll see the temperatures and humidity start to edge up a little bit but it still should be fairly comfortable. Sunday will also see some low pressure moving across northern New York State and into New England this could bring some scattered rain showers into parts of New York State and New England. South of there, there will be a chance for some isolated showers but most should stay dry. Sunday will also be beginning of a lot of heat and humidity for the region. Sunday and especially Monday Tuesday into Wednesday we will see air temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s.  It will be possible  some areas could see air temperatures approach 100°F+, dewpoints are going to be in the 70s, making for heat indexes of mid 90s to over 100°F, some areas could see heat indexes over 110°F.