Update on some summer thoughts

 This will dovetail into some of my points in the daily post.

This post is going to go over the the drought conditions and how we got to this point, with all the rain as well as touch on some of my thoughts When the deals will summer Pattern.

Back in March this was the drought conditions across the United States and Northeast.

But the current US drought monitor is showing a very different story.

The Bermuda High has been very expansive extending from the central Atlantic into the southeast United States.This has pumped a lot of moisture to stream north out of the gulf of Mexico and southeast United States, keeping the The southern Plaines and East Coast very wet for the last few months. 

All of this has to do with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific and the Atlantic.

There have been four prominent high pressure ridges in the Northern Hemisphere, one over Eurasia, one in the north Pacific, one in the Gulf of Alaska and one in the northern Atlantic (Bermuda High)

In the above 500 millibar anomalies chart  those yellow and orange splotches in the northern hemisphere are the areas I'm talking about. All of these have been controlling Trough and bridge pattern across the northern hemisphere

On the above 925 mb we can see the predominant high pressure ridge in the Gulf of Alaska along with the Bermuda High sitting out in the Atlantic  and how all this has translated to the surface. 

June has seen the north pacific into the gulf of Alaska And North Atlantic including along the East Coast heat up a lot.

For June into July the pattern looks to have that strong high pressure ridge in the Gulf of Alaska which should looks keep the northern flow active with several short waves moving along it. The Bermuda high also looks like it's not going to be moving a heck of a lot. so I expect to see this moisture stream moving around it over the Atlantic Caribbean and Gulf then up Into Midwest and up the East Coast. This will likely lead to a general zonal flow Over the next few weeks with the moisture streaming northward the storms will have moisture to work with resulting in at least moderate amounts of rain.

The climate prediction center (CPC) 8-14 day outlook shows much of our region in the Northeast back thru Pennsylvania see above average precipitation; with areas in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England closer to the coast seeing precipitation amounts of around average. This would correlate to the pattern I've been talking about for the last few weeks and the information I went over in this post. 

We're at that point in the year where we see the atmospheric Rossby Wave length increase (become longer in duration).  Atmospheric waves are like ocean waves where the wavelength is measured from the crest of one wave to the crest of the next wave. I don't want you to confuse the terms long wave and shortwave  Short waves are the little disturbances that are inside the longer Rossby waves that circle the planet. Without getting into a lot of science Rosby waves are primary responsible for transporting the warm air in the tropics northward towards the polar regions, and sending the colder air at the poles southward towards the tropics. But they also help layout the track for the jet stream and lay down a general path for the low pressure systems that generally rotate through from west to east across North America. Longwaves move much slower compared to their shortwave counterparts. During winter when the long waves have a shorter wave length The systems move through generally faster. But during the summer when the wavelength increases systems end up generally moving slower, and can have a tendency to stay over a certain region for a longer period of time. Why is this important moving forward?

When we look back at that 500MB anomaly chart. We can see the big ridge near the gulf of Alaska, The ridge developing in the midwest that's gonna to be bringing our heat in for next week, The ridge with the Bermuda High in the Atlantic and another ridge over Eurasia. When I looked deeper at the 500 millibar pattern, There is a chance we could end up with some long way of blocking down the line, due to position and strength of that ridge sitting near Europe. Over the weekend into next week Bermuda high is going to West and become entangled with the high pressure ridge it's going to be sitting over the eastern US. We're going to have system rotating around us bridge So those along the edge could see some storminess. Inside the ridge very isolated chances for storms. Once we get into July, the location of the Bermuda High and how it behaves Will have a lot to say How  hot the northeast and Mid Atlantic get. I'm only saying there is a possibility for this to happen But if it does, and this long wave pattern slows down or even become stagnant; we could we could get locked in under a ridge for a bit maybe leading to some extended heat over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic for part of July. The odds of this occurring are higher now that we're in summer than they would be during the winter.

Here are the 3 months seasonal out books From the CPC.

I still do think the CPC is overestimating the amount of warmth we're going to see over the next 3 months. But things like the one I discussed here, could make us a little warmer than I originally thought in the summer outlook I put out a few months ago. The CPC precipitation summer outlook, I do agree more with it. I think we will see enough rain to hold off any real wide spread drought issues as we head towards the fall. But there are going to be targeted areas that might become a little dry to abnormally dry over the summer time.