09/22/2025

 Welcome to the fall equinox. Astronomical fall will begin this afternoon at 2:19PM.

The surface chart shows high pressure Is starting To slip east but it is still in control of our weather. To our west We have a slow moving trough along with a cold front. Ahead of the approaching front we have a few rain showers over western New York State into north western Pennsylvania. As day goes on The showers will become more Widespread and scattered as they move east into central New York State and Pennsylvania. During the afternoon into this evening There will be a chance for thunderstorms to develop. Winds will become breezy during the afternoon, as a southern flow directs warmer and more humid air Into our region. Some of the storms this afternoon and evening could be strong to severe. With the main risks being strong gusty winds and some hail. These storms will be slow moving and some of the cells could produce heavy rainfall Which could lead to some localized flooding.

The showers and storms will continue to push east Tonight and overnight and should make it into eastern New York State and the Hudson Valley by tomorrow afternoon. Find moving into western New England along with Eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey during tomorrow afternoon. The scattered to isolated showers will push into eastern New England later tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

We're going to be under the influence Of this slow moving trough For Tuesday Through Thursday. We're also going to have a frontal boundary setup with an area of low pressure that will be moving along it. All of this will keep the weather unsettled Was scattered showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorms will specially be around for Thursday. Some of the storms on Thursday could be strong to severe with strong gusty winds, hail and heavy downpours. And Friday as the cold front continues to push east, The mid Atlantic and new England will be dealing Dealing with lingering showers and perhaps even some thunderstorms For friday morning into the afternoon.  During the afternoon into the early evening. Cooler air will move into the region behind this cold front.  The cold front will have finally slipped to the east and then stall off the coast. We will have low pressure moving along this frontal boundary that could kick off a few showers across the northern Middle Atlantic into New England on Saturday. Then for Sunday  another cold front will approach and move through the region bringing the chance for widespread scattered rain showers. Then for Monday high pressure will be once again in complete control of our weather.

Tropical Atlantic

Image credit Tomer Burg

Image credit Tomer Burg

Gabrielle underwent some rapid intensification and now has max sustained winds of 120 mph, central pressure of 955mb, moving North at 10 mph. She is the 7th named storm and the 2nd major hurricane of the season. She still looks to pass well to the east of Bermuda. She will likely continue to track north for around the next 12 to 18 hours, before she starts to make a turn to the north and east and head out into the open north Atlantic.  There is a chance that she could intensify some more over the next 24 hours. Before she moves into the colder waters of the north Atlantic and gradually starts to weaken. As she heads towards the Azores.

She is going to kick up heavy surf and swell along with dangerous rip currents along East Coast And Atlantic Canada.So keep that in mind if you're gonna be around  or on the water.

The two waves behind Gabrielle

The one with the red x is now invest 93L and has a 70% chance of developing. 93L looks to take a similar track to Gabrielle. This would mean that Bermuda will have to keep a close eye  on this.

The other Has been dubbed Invest 94L and has an orange 30% chance of developing over the next 7 days. Right now I-94L Looks To stay north and east Of the Caribbean islands, But that is no Sure thing. It could pass close to the Bahamas So those who have interest there should keep an eye on 94L. 94L  could pass close to or even impact the East Coast of the United States and or Atlantic Canada.

09/21/2025

 

The surface charge shows high pressure still in control, but starting to slide east ahead of a trough working in out of the Great Lakes and Canada. Southerly winds will allow temperatures to warm as clouds increase west to east across the region. 

A few showers could make it into far western parts of our region tonight. With the southern winds Tonight will be warmer than the last couple of nights have been. As The high pressure continues to push away ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will continue to climb for Monday and Tuesday. The scattered rain and some thunderstorms will work into western parts of our region during tomorrow morning. These scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will slowly continue to push eastward moving across Pennsylvania, New York State into western New England for Monday and Tuesday. They look to  reach the Middle Atlantic and eastern New England during Tuesday afternoon into the evening. 

The region has been very dry for the last several weeks and we very much need this rain. Well it will come at the risk of some severe weather and a chance for some flooding. The greatest risk for severe weather across New York State and Pennsylvania Will come Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, The storms will bring the risk damaging winds and some hail. The storms will be moving slow And they will be capable of dropping heavy rain. The dry ground  will increase the flood risk. Where's the rain looking to be more in the way of scattered I don't think this is going to be a drought buster. But the rain will be welcome nonetheless.

The weather looks to stay unsettled for Wednesday and to friday. Then and friday the cold front will be pushing off the coast with cool dryer air moving into the region. Saturday we will see a trough moving across the region That could bring a few isolated rain showers And then high pressure will set up overhead For Sunday.

Tropical Atlantic

At 11:00 am Gabrielle Had sustained winds of 65, minimum central pressure of 995MB, tracking northwest at 12 mph. 

She will likely become a hurricane at some point today. Then start a turn to the north tomorrow, Passing will east of the US East Coast and southeast of Atlantic Canada The east coast Is starting to feel see her swell increase today. As she pushes passes east of Bermuda tomorrow Heavy swell and dangerous rip currents Can't be expected along the East Coast and up into Atlantic Canada, for tomorrow into Tuesday. She should start a turn to the north and east on Tuesday and head out into the open Atlantic.

Image credit Tomer Burg

The area behind Gabrielle is now at 40% chance of developing over the next 7 days.

09/19/2025

 A great weekend ahead.

The surface chart and radar shows that weak moisture starved cold front moving over the region with the entire region rain free. The air is very dry But I suppose it is still possible for a few very very isolated rain showers today. But I will be surprised if anyone sees any. 

Satellite shows not much going on across the Eastern US. But we do have a  disturbance near the Mississippi river valley. This could Influence our weather early next week. Until then Today and the weekend will be spectacular with plenty of sun but quite coolish temperatures.

For Monday and Tuesday we will be dealing with a few Shortwave troughs moving through. That could spark off a few isolated showers. Then for later Tuesday and Wednesday a stronger but still moisture starved cold front will move across the region bringing a better chance for some scattered isolated showers across the region. There's a chance for a few thunderstorms but the odds of those are low. Then for Thursday and Friday high pressure will set back up overhead providing dry conditions with plenty of sun. On Friday we will be watching another system approach from the south and west; that could possibly bring some rain into parts of western Pennsylvania later friday.

Right now I don't see any major storms Impacting our region anytime soon

Tropical Atlantic

Gabriel is looking a little more organized  than she was yesterday. The National Hurricane Center has her maximum sustained winds at 50 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1004 MB, tracking west northwest at 12 mph..

Image credit Tomer Burg

Looking at satellite, as she is shrugging off  all that dry air and wind shed she is developing more Convection (thunderstorms). She looks healthier than she has since she was 1st named. Because she is becoming more developed Her tropical storm force windfield has shrank down to around 150 miles from her center.

She is moving into Warmer waters around 84°F and wind Sheer will continue to lessen. So she should continue to strengthen and could become a hurricane by Sunday.

By tomorrow She should start to make a track more to the north northwest generally towards Bermuda.

Image credit Tomer Burg

She still looks to pass just to the east of Bermuda Sunday and Monday. Then turn into the open northern Atlantic likely staying south and east of Atlantic Canada.

There are a couple of tropical waves to the east of Gabriel having a much better chance of heading towards and if they survive making it into the Caribbean.  The NHC is giving 20% odds to the one that just came off the West Coast of Africa. These waves will be facing wind shear and dry air issues as they head towards the Central Atlantic.

The SST's in the Caribbean are running 86°F to 88°F. With parts of the Gulf of America even warmer.  So anything that gets into the Caribbean and Gulf of America could have a chance to rapidly intensify. 

Have a great weekend!

Gabrielle

 Tropical Atlantic

Gabriel  continues to struggle with dry air and wind Sheer. On satellite you can see how disorganized she is as her convection is spread over a large area and there isn't much in the way of visible circulation. Yesterday I questioned her tropical storm status and that hasn't changed. She is so elongated that she looks more like a strong tropical wave instead of a tropical storm. I still don't think she's a fully formed tropical storm,as her center of circulation keeps moving around. But as I also said yesterday all of this is the National Hurricane Centers call and not mine.

Currently her max substained winds are 50 mph,  minimum central pressure is around 1004 mb and she is moving west northwest at near 15 mph. Because she is so spread out, her tropical storm wind field has expanded to around 290 miles.

Image credit Timer Burg

Gabriel looks to turn north and east and won't be a threat to the Caribbean Islands and she will stay well east of the East Coast of the United States. Right now she still looks the past east of Bermuda, But with her struggling that is not a completely sure thing.

Image credit Tomer burg.

I've been talking about the location of the Bermuda high and the trough that is coming off of the United States that will keep her generally out to sea. You can see that in this image showing the general steering currents that are impacting Gabrielle.

Image credit University of Wisconsin Madison

Here is a map Showing the wind shear Gabrielle is dealing with

Image credit University of Wisconsin Madison.

As I said She has been dealing with dry air. You can see that in the following Saharan air layer image.

She is moving into warmer water and the wind shear and other factors that are affecting her will be lessening over the weekend. Because of this we should see her start to become more organized. It is still possible She will become the second hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. We will just have to watch and see how she fares when she finally starts to get on to the western side of that Bermuda high and starts to turn more to the north. Those in Bermuda will still want to keep a eye on Gabrielle's progress.

There is still a tropical wave That has a low 20% chance of development over the next 7 days. The NHC has stopped monitoring the other area NHC has stopped monitoring the other area they indicated yesterday This area has basically collapsed This is due to both tropical waves experiencing the same general conditions that are interfering with Gabrielle.

09/18/2025

 Looking at current conditions

The surface chart Shows the coastal low pulling away and moving into the Gulf of Maine, along with another shortwave trough moving through the region. Radar shows That the entire region is currently dry.  Satellite shows the vast majority of region is under cloud free skies.

Today we will be dealing with a chance for a few isolated showers. But these will be very hit and miss and most won't see them. Later today Into tonight a back door cold front is going to drop down out of Canada sliding northwest to southeast. This will bring a chance for a few isolated showers to northern parts of New York State and into northern New England later this evening and tonight. Then on Friday the cold front will continue dropping through the region bringing the risk for a few isolated showers but that should be about it.

High pressure will be building in behind the cold front allowing much cooler and less humid air to move into the region along with a tighter pressure gradient leading to breezier conditions, winds look to gust 20-30 plus miles an hour.

And then for Saturday and Sunday high pressure overhead means the weather should be just about perfect for this time of year; with plenty of sun, seasonally cool fall like temperatures and dry conditions. 

So, get out and enjoy the last weekend of summer as astronomical fall begins on Monday at 2:20 PM. Despite it being fall;Monday and Tuesday will feel more summer-like with warming temperatures and higher levels of humidity.  On Monday a weak shortwave trough will move through bringing the chance for a few isolated showers but the vast amount of the region should experience a mix of sun and clouds. Then for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday a series of moisture starved cold fronts will drop through the region bringing the chance for isolated rain showers each day. If you're looking for any relief from our current drought situation I wouldn't hold my breath.

The drought:

The current drought maps:

This week

The region has been very dry for the last several weeks. August 2025 was the second driest august Since 1895. The pattern that led to the dry august has continued through September

This week, Because of that coastal low eastern Maryland into the Delmarva Peninsula saw a little bit of rain, with the rest of the region seeing very little to none. Temperatures have been average to below average for the last week; which has slowed down The worsening  drought conditions. But in spite of that conditions have continued to get worse. Extreme drought conditions have expanded across New Hampshire and now extend into southern Maine. Severe drought expanded across northern new England And northern New York, as well as parts of Pennsylvania and now extends into western Maryland.  The map shows an expansion of moderate drought across western Pennsylvania. The abnormally dry conditions have expanded across eastern Pennsylvania as well as Eastern Massachusetts and Maryland.

Last week

This week's drought monitor Showed that 3% of the northeast is now in extreme drought, 20% in severe drought, 22% in moderate drought and 37% is considered abnormally dry. Last week saw 1% of the northeast in extreme drought, 15% in severe drought, 21% in moderate drought  with 36% experiencing abnormally dry  conditions.

How the drought monitor works:

The US drought monitor map is released every Thursday, it shows the measurements that were obtained on the previous Tuesday. The map breaks down conditions into 6 categories, None which means conditions are around normal, Abnormally dry (AO) which means that area is heading into drought, Then you have Moderate drought (D1), Severe drought (D2), Extreme drought (D3) and Exceptional drought (D4).

Types of drought:

Those producing the drought monitor look at all of the data and factors to try and determine the extent of the drought.

What I think:

When looking at the actual data. Drought conditions across the region are much worse than the drought monitor is indicating.

Ground water Levels are very low, soil moisture is very dry in most areas, stream flow across a large part of the region is very low some locations are even at record low levels.

In my opinion most of our region is experiencing either severe drought or moderate drought.

I'm not sure where the error is, hopefully the drought monitor can find and correct this error before next week's release of the drought monitor.

Here is a look at the last 30 days rainfall amounts, percentage and departures from average

I will have a separate post on the tropics Later today.

Tropical Wednesday!

I take my job seriously when it comes to informing all y'all on upcoming weather events including the tropics. Some of y'all don't like the way I go about it. That may be why my blog posts aren't viewed by too many of y'all. But I do the best I can in providing  easy to understand and accurate forecasting information, so that all y'all can prepare for these events well in time to make a difference. To be honest It would be much easier for me to keep the information I'm relaying much more technical, but I know that not too many of y'all would be able to understand what I'm saying. So I'd rather take more time to deliver a product that is more useful. So I guess that's that. I'm not going to change the way I'm relaying information to all y'all. I would love to see a lot more activity, likes and views. But I guess it is what it is.

 Tropical storm Gabrielle.

The National Weather Service upgraded invest 92L to tropical depression seven during the overnight around 5:00 AM. Then just before the 11AM update they change TD 7 to tropical storm Gabrielle. I'm really not sure why NHC Upgraded her to a tropical storm as she still seems be getting her act together And is having a hard time finding her true center. But that is the NHC's call and has nothing to do with me!

Gabriel Has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, a central pressure of 1006 mb, tracking north northwest at 22 mph . 

Image credit Brian McNoldy

As Gabrielle continues to track across the Central Atlantic she should slow down in her forward momentum. She is moving into warmer waters and conditions favor gradual strengthening over the next few days. Given the setup she should became the second hurricane of the season by Sunday, passing north and east of the leeward islands.

On satellite she is still poorly organized because she is dealing with strong southwesterly wind shear of around 20-25 mph. Wind shear should slowly start to weaken over the weekend.

Her tropical storm force winds extend around 175 miles from the center. As I've been saying troughing that will be moving off the East Coast of the US will keep Gabriel well north and east of the Caribbean, east of the US East Coast and south and east of  Atlantic Canada. Bermuda on the other hand could see a closer approach. Current indications are She could pass just south and east of Bermuda. But with  6-7 days to go  her track could shift either east or west. So those with interest in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle's track. Given the fact, that she is so far to the east even those on the East Coast of the US Should keep an ear out and an eye on her progress.

Image credit Tomer Burg

Behind Gabrielle We have the tropical wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa. This wave is located a few hundred miles west southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. The marginal conditions around the tropical wave do favor very gradual strengthening over the next few days. Currently the NHC is giving this 7 day development odds of  20%. It's Still a  too early to know if this will track into the Caribbean or not. But I do think we need to watch the Caribbean and Gulf of America as we are bound to see activity pick up in these areas.

There is another tropical wave Currently still over Africa It will be emerging off the west coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic. The NHC is giving this low development chances of 20% as well.

09/17/2025

 The surface chart shows high pressure anchored up over New England back into Canada With that coastal low around Virginia. The weakening coastal low will continue to track north into the region today. 

Today is going to be another day with above average temperatures.  The region will be mostly dry. The radar shows Scattered rain showers over the northern Middle Atlantic The showers will continue to to press North into Southeast New York State and southern New England today. Some of the showers could be moderately heavy at times.  Those with the greatest chance of seeing these heavier showers will those closer to the area of low pressure.  The spotty isolated rain shower linger into tomorrow. As the coastal low moves north and east  away from the region and we see clearing west to east across the region.

 Tomorrow afternoon we'll be watching a weak Cold front approach from Canada. This cold front is going to be very moisture starved. But it will have a chance to bring a few isolated showers to northern New York state and northern new England starting late tomorrow into tomorrow night. This will continue to move across the region on friday Continuing the chance for a few isolated showers that will be very hit and miss Across the rest of the region. The showers we see out of this Will be light and short lived.

Behind this cold front High pressure will go back in providing quite a bit of sun and seasonally cool temperatures for this time of year. The cool temperatures dry conditions will extend through the weekend. Then for Monday and Tuesday Temperatures will start to warm back up Both days will see a series of weak troughs that will work through the region bringing Scatter cloud cover and  the chance for a few rain showers. On Wednesday we will see a cold front approach and move through bringing the chance for scattered rain showers to the region. 

I will talk more about the tropics later today

09/16/2025

 Coastal low slowly churning off the east coast

Today started coolish with areas of broken fog across parts of the region. Today will  become warm with above average temperatures that will last through much of the work week. The majority of the region will stay dry today. The best chance for any rain will be over far south east parts of the region.

The surface chart and radar show  high pressure sitting over the region ; with that developing non tropical coastal low near the Carolinas. 

Satellite shows scattered broken cloud cover extending north away from the Central Middle Atlantic Coast. The heaviest cloud cover is down over Southern New Jersey back into Delaware and Maryland. The satellite shows that the coastal low looks fairly dynamic. But as this coastal low moves north the environment is going to become less supportive. This will lead to weakening of the disturbance. Currently this is bringing wind gust of 50 to perhaps 60 miles an hour to  not only the Coast of North Carolina, but also interior parts of the Carolinas into Virginia,  along with a heavy swell and wave action to the Coast.

The showers will continue to push north today Into tomorrow. The  scattered spotty showers could make it into New York City,  Long Island and up into Southeast Massachusetts the Cape and Offshore Islands later today, We have the greatest impacts occurring Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The heaviest of the rain will be close to and along the coast. Wednesday a few of these showers could make it as far north as southeastern New York State, mainly south of Albany. Isolated showers could also make it into Central New England. All of these will be highly isolated  and shouldn't last more than a few minutes. The best chances for moderate to heavy rain showers will be down closer to the Coastal Plain. There could be some coastal flooding and beach erosion associated with this over the next couple of days.

Thursday as we're watching the coastal low depart with clearing developing west to east. A cold front will be dropping south out of Canada. This front won't have a lot of moisture with it so other than a few isolated showers and building clouds; most of Y'all shouldn't see much of anything out of it. Northern New York State and Northern New England will see the chance for some isolated showers moving in Thursday night. This chance for isolated showers will continue to work south on Friday. High pressure will be building in behind the front, we can expect sunny skies, breezy conditions and dry weather developing north to south on Friday and lasting into the coming weekend. Sunday and Monday we will watch a couple of weak shortwave troughs move through the region Bringing the chance for a few isolated showers but I doubt most will see them. Then on Tuesday we will see a cold front drop in through the region bringing the chance for a few rain showers. But again I think coverage of these showers will be more spotty than not. A large part of next week is looking quite dry in general. The entire region needs rain, unfortunately I don't see many of us seeing any meaningful rain through the rest of September. So rainfall deficits will continue to climb and drought conditions will continue to worsen.

Tropical Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center designated this Invest 92L overnight. I-92L is a broad area of disorganized convection (Thunderstorms). This will likely become a tropical depression  within the next 12-24 hours. If this gets a name it will be named Gabriel.

Image credit Alex Boreham

The National Hurricane Center is giving this a 2 day and 7 day odds of development at 90% concurrently.

There is a chance as this gradually moves into warming waters that this could come a strong hurricane as it works its way around the western edge of that Bermuda high in the Atlantic.

Image credit Alex Boreham

 As I've been saying troughs that will be working off-shore should keep this away from the Caribbean and US East Coast. But there is a chance that Bermuda could see a close pass or even a direct hit from 92L. 

Image credit Tomer Burg

Following Image credit Alex Boreham

Image credit Tropical tidbits.

Yesterday I mentioned the system that was coming off the west coast of Africa. The NHC Is now placing this at a low yellow chance  20% for development over the next 7 days. This looks to keep a lower latitude than 92L. But it is still too early to know if this will head into or towards the Caribbean islands or try to make it curve more to the north.

There's nothing going on in the Gulf of America right now. But we will have to keep a close eye on it.