The surface charge shows high pressure still in control, but starting to slide east ahead of a trough working in out of the Great Lakes and Canada. Southerly winds will allow temperatures to warm as clouds increase west to east across the region.
A few showers could make it into far western parts of our region tonight. With the southern winds Tonight will be warmer than the last couple of nights have been. As The high pressure continues to push away ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will continue to climb for Monday and Tuesday. The scattered rain and some thunderstorms will work into western parts of our region during tomorrow morning. These scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will slowly continue to push eastward moving across Pennsylvania, New York State into western New England for Monday and Tuesday. They look to reach the Middle Atlantic and eastern New England during Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
The region has been very dry for the last several weeks and we very much need this rain. Well it will come at the risk of some severe weather and a chance for some flooding. The greatest risk for severe weather across New York State and Pennsylvania Will come Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, The storms will bring the risk damaging winds and some hail. The storms will be moving slow And they will be capable of dropping heavy rain. The dry ground will increase the flood risk. Where's the rain looking to be more in the way of scattered I don't think this is going to be a drought buster. But the rain will be welcome nonetheless.
The weather looks to stay unsettled for Wednesday and to friday. Then and friday the cold front will be pushing off the coast with cool dryer air moving into the region. Saturday we will see a trough moving across the region That could bring a few isolated rain showers And then high pressure will set up overhead For Sunday.
Tropical Atlantic
At 11:00 am Gabrielle Had sustained winds of 65, minimum central pressure of 995MB, tracking northwest at 12 mph.
She will likely become a hurricane at some point today. Then start a turn to the north tomorrow, Passing will east of the US East Coast and southeast of Atlantic Canada The east coast Is starting to feel see her swell increase today. As she pushes passes east of Bermuda tomorrow Heavy swell and dangerous rip currents Can't be expected along the East Coast and up into Atlantic Canada, for tomorrow into Tuesday. She should start a turn to the north and east on Tuesday and head out into the open Atlantic.
The area behind Gabrielle is now at 40% chance of developing over the next 7 days.
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