09/04/2025

 

Surface chart and radar

High pressure is pushing east off the coast. Also, we can see the cold front approaching Out of the Midwest and Great Lakes.  There is a second cold front behind this first one up over the Upper Midwest into Canada This is moving extremely slow and will be here tomorrow and to Saturday. Until then, we do have a few shortwave troughs ahead of the front along with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over western New York State and western Pennsylvania. The first cold front moving across New York State and western Pennsylvania is going to weaken and basically fall apart as it moves east today. 

We are going to stay in the warm sector ahead of the second main cold front As the high pressure continues to slide east and the cold front continues to approach; a southwest wind flow will be increasing bringing in warmer temperatures and higher levels of humidity.

Some of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could be strong to severe, With strong gusty possibly damaging winds being the main danger. Locally heavy rains will also be an issue. For this reason the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather over New York State and Pennsylvania.

As the line of thunderstorms move into eastern New York State and far eastern Pennsylvania Storms should be much more isolated than the earlier in the afternoon. By this evening as this is moving into the Middle Atlantic and new England, There should only be isolated rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms.m

Tomorrow into Saturday will be even warmer than today along with the chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. As second but weaker shortwave moves through the region. Then the second and much stronger cold front We will move through During Friday into Saturday. As the front Pushes into the above average temperatures We will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Move across from west to east. Some of these storms Could be strong to severe. Again with the biggest danger being the risk for damaging winds and heavy downpours. The SPC has a marginal Risk for severe weather over the northern Middle Atlantic region. But I think they will end up expanding this further north as we get closer.

Saturday night and Sunday high pressure will be approaching. We'll see the cold front pushing east, taking the warm temperatures and higher levels humidity with it. The high pressure will remain in control of our local pattern For Monday into Thursday We have generally cooler than average temperatures and lower humidity levels As we approach midweek temperatures should be warming a bit but they still shouldn't be all that bad. M uch of next week should be dry but there will be a risk for some isolated rain showers here and there across the region.

Tropical Atlantic

The disturbance (Invest 91L) south and west of the Cabo Verde Islands is slowly developing. The national hurricane center now has its development odds over the next 7 days at 80%

What I posted yesterday really hasn't changed all that much. 91L could become a tropical depression or maybe even a named storm over the weekend.

Convention Thunderstorms Is slowly deepening in the system and the system is rather compact. The longer it takes 91L to strengthen the better it's chances of continuing to head west. 

Image credit Timer Burg

 The east coast of the US and the eastern Caribbean islands Should keep an eye I-91L. This could pull north Or it could continue to head more west and move into the Caribbean. Until the system becomes more defined we really won't know which way it's really gonna go. We have several days to keep an eye on this So for now we're just waiting to see how things trend.The

If this does become a named system, it will be called Gabrielle.