I take my job seriously when it comes to informing all y'all on upcoming weather events including the tropics. Some of y'all don't like the way I go about it. That may be why my blog posts aren't viewed by too many of y'all. But I do the best I can in providing easy to understand and accurate forecasting information, so that all y'all can prepare for these events well in time to make a difference. To be honest It would be much easier for me to keep the information I'm relaying much more technical, but I know that not too many of y'all would be able to understand what I'm saying. So I'd rather take more time to deliver a product that is more useful. So I guess that's that. I'm not going to change the way I'm relaying information to all y'all. I would love to see a lot more activity, likes and views. But I guess it is what it is.
Tropical storm Gabrielle.
The National Weather Service upgraded invest 92L to tropical depression seven during the overnight around 5:00 AM. Then just before the 11AM update they change TD 7 to tropical storm Gabrielle. I'm really not sure why NHC Upgraded her to a tropical storm as she still seems be getting her act together And is having a hard time finding her true center. But that is the NHC's call and has nothing to do with me!
Gabriel Has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, a central pressure of 1006 mb, tracking north northwest at 22 mph .
As Gabrielle continues to track across the Central Atlantic she should slow down in her forward momentum. She is moving into warmer waters and conditions favor gradual strengthening over the next few days. Given the setup she should became the second hurricane of the season by Sunday, passing north and east of the leeward islands.
On satellite she is still poorly organized because she is dealing with strong southwesterly wind shear of around 20-25 mph. Wind shear should slowly start to weaken over the weekend.
Her tropical storm force winds extend around 175 miles from the center. As I've been saying troughing that will be moving off the East Coast of the US will keep Gabriel well north and east of the Caribbean, east of the US East Coast and south and east of Atlantic Canada. Bermuda on the other hand could see a closer approach. Current indications are She could pass just south and east of Bermuda. But with 6-7 days to go her track could shift either east or west. So those with interest in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle's track. Given the fact, that she is so far to the east even those on the East Coast of the US Should keep an ear out and an eye on her progress.
Behind Gabrielle We have the tropical wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa. This wave is located a few hundred miles west southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. The marginal conditions around the tropical wave do favor very gradual strengthening over the next few days. Currently the NHC is giving this 7 day development odds of 20%. It's Still a too early to know if this will track into the Caribbean or not. But I do think we need to watch the Caribbean and Gulf of America as we are bound to see activity pick up in these areas.
There is another tropical wave Currently still over Africa It will be emerging off the west coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic. The NHC is giving this low development chances of 20% as well.
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