Are you enjoying the fall like weather?
The high pressure that has been providing all of this nice weather is starting to slide south and east; as a cold front approaches from the Upper Midwest. Satellite does show the vast majority of the region is cloud free. Today is going to experience seasonal temperatures and dry conditions with light and variable winds. But some changes are on the way.
Tonight will be another tranquil night as the high pressure exits the region. Then tomorrow The first of several shortwave troughs will approach and move through. Ahead of the strong cold front winds will become breezy and we're going to see southwest winds increase the heat and humidity. As these troughs move through they will reintroduce the chance for scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Tomorrow more in the way of widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will be over western New York State into Pennsylvania late morning into the afternoon. Some of these storms will likely be strong to severe. With the biggest danger being the chance for gusty damaging winds. Locally heavy rains will also be an issue. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal risk for severe storms across much of New York State and Pennsylvania.
The line of showers and thunderstorms will move across west to east during the afternoon into the evening As all of this is moving east the line will likely weaken a bit, with thunderstorms becoming more isolated in nature. The showers and storms will be moving into Eastern New York State the Mid Atlantic and New England tomorrow evening into Friday. Friday into Saturday will be unsettled with rain showers and thunderstorms as another weakening little shortwave trough moves across the region. Saturday. The much stronger cold front will move through on Saturday. Again bringing scattered showers and some thunderstorms, isolated thunderstorms could be strong to severe. This cold front is going to sweep the heat and humidity out of here by Sunday. High pressure will be over the region for Sunday through Wednesday, providing mostly dry conditions. The air mass for next week is going to be very cool, with generally below average temperatures across the region.
The tropics
The disturbance west of the cable Verde Islands, Is it an increasing risk of becoming a hurricane. The national hurricane center has the development odds at 70% over the next 7 days, as conditions are favorable for slow development. This could become a tropical depression or possibly tropical storm Gabrielle by Friday or more likely over the coming weekend. Right now the disturbance is rather ragged and it is dealing with a bit of dry air and Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust. So we will see how this goes. Conditions next week will be a little more favorable
The forecast models Show several different possible tracks and outcomes. The euro which did very well with Erin does show this keeping to the southern side of the track, bringing it more south and west than the other models. Right now until a definite low pressure center develops we really won't be able to tell where this is actually gonna track. So those in the Eastern Caribbean Islands and even the East Coast of the United States should keep an eye on this. If it does get close to the US, a trough will likely pick this up and push it back out to sea. But it's too early to know that for sure.
I will be posting again on some winter thoughts later today or tomorrow.
Living the fall weather but Deff would be happy to have some rain! Thanks again for all your updates -Dave A
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