09/16/2025

 Coastal low slowly churning off the east coast

Today started coolish with areas of broken fog across parts of the region. Today will  become warm with above average temperatures that will last through much of the work week. The majority of the region will stay dry today. The best chance for any rain will be over far south east parts of the region.

The surface chart and radar show  high pressure sitting over the region ; with that developing non tropical coastal low near the Carolinas. 

Satellite shows scattered broken cloud cover extending north away from the Central Middle Atlantic Coast. The heaviest cloud cover is down over Southern New Jersey back into Delaware and Maryland. The satellite shows that the coastal low looks fairly dynamic. But as this coastal low moves north the environment is going to become less supportive. This will lead to weakening of the disturbance. Currently this is bringing wind gust of 50 to perhaps 60 miles an hour to  not only the Coast of North Carolina, but also interior parts of the Carolinas into Virginia,  along with a heavy swell and wave action to the Coast.

The showers will continue to push north today Into tomorrow. The  scattered spotty showers could make it into New York City,  Long Island and up into Southeast Massachusetts the Cape and Offshore Islands later today, We have the greatest impacts occurring Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The heaviest of the rain will be close to and along the coast. Wednesday a few of these showers could make it as far north as southeastern New York State, mainly south of Albany. Isolated showers could also make it into Central New England. All of these will be highly isolated  and shouldn't last more than a few minutes. The best chances for moderate to heavy rain showers will be down closer to the Coastal Plain. There could be some coastal flooding and beach erosion associated with this over the next couple of days.

Thursday as we're watching the coastal low depart with clearing developing west to east. A cold front will be dropping south out of Canada. This front won't have a lot of moisture with it so other than a few isolated showers and building clouds; most of Y'all shouldn't see much of anything out of it. Northern New York State and Northern New England will see the chance for some isolated showers moving in Thursday night. This chance for isolated showers will continue to work south on Friday. High pressure will be building in behind the front, we can expect sunny skies, breezy conditions and dry weather developing north to south on Friday and lasting into the coming weekend. Sunday and Monday we will watch a couple of weak shortwave troughs move through the region Bringing the chance for a few isolated showers but I doubt most will see them. Then on Tuesday we will see a cold front drop in through the region bringing the chance for a few rain showers. But again I think coverage of these showers will be more spotty than not. A large part of next week is looking quite dry in general. The entire region needs rain, unfortunately I don't see many of us seeing any meaningful rain through the rest of September. So rainfall deficits will continue to climb and drought conditions will continue to worsen.

Tropical Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center designated this Invest 92L overnight. I-92L is a broad area of disorganized convection (Thunderstorms). This will likely become a tropical depression  within the next 12-24 hours. If this gets a name it will be named Gabriel.

Image credit Alex Boreham

The National Hurricane Center is giving this a 2 day and 7 day odds of development at 90% concurrently.

There is a chance as this gradually moves into warming waters that this could come a strong hurricane as it works its way around the western edge of that Bermuda high in the Atlantic.

Image credit Alex Boreham

 As I've been saying troughs that will be working off-shore should keep this away from the Caribbean and US East Coast. But there is a chance that Bermuda could see a close pass or even a direct hit from 92L. 

Image credit Tomer Burg

Following Image credit Alex Boreham

Image credit Tropical tidbits.

Yesterday I mentioned the system that was coming off the west coast of Africa. The NHC Is now placing this at a low yellow chance  20% for development over the next 7 days. This looks to keep a lower latitude than 92L. But it is still too early to know if this will head into or towards the Caribbean islands or try to make it curve more to the north.

There's nothing going on in the Gulf of America right now. But we will have to keep a close eye on it.