Tropical Atlantic
Gabriel continues to struggle with dry air and wind Sheer. On satellite you can see how disorganized she is as her convection is spread over a large area and there isn't much in the way of visible circulation. Yesterday I questioned her tropical storm status and that hasn't changed. She is so elongated that she looks more like a strong tropical wave instead of a tropical storm. I still don't think she's a fully formed tropical storm,as her center of circulation keeps moving around. But as I also said yesterday all of this is the National Hurricane Centers call and not mine.
Currently her max staying winds are 50 mph, minimum central pressure is around 1004 mb and she is moving west northwest at near 15 mph. Because she is so spread out, her tropical storm wind field has expanded to around 290 miles.
Gabriel looks to turn north and east and won't be a threat to the Caribbean Islands and she will stay well east of the East Coast of the United States. Right now she still looks the past east of Bermuda, But with her struggling that is not a completely sure thing.
I've been talking about the location of the Bermuda high and the trough that is coming off of the United States that will keep her generally out to sea. You can see that in this image showing the general steering currents that are impacting Gabrielle.
Image credit University of Wisconsin Madison
Here is a map Showing the wind shear Gabrielle is dealing with
Image credit University of Wisconsin Madison.
As I said She has been dealing with dry air. You can see that in the following Saharan air layer image.
She is moving into warmer water and the wind shear and other factors that are affecting her will be lessening over the weekend. Because of this we should see her start to become more organized. It is still possible She will become the second hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. We will just have to watch and see how she fares when she finally starts to get on to the western side of that Bermuda high and starts to turn more to the north. Those in Bermuda will still want to keep a eye on Gabrielle's progress.
There is still a tropical wave That has a low 20% chance of development over the next 7 days. The NHC has stopped monitoring the other area NHC has stopped monitoring the other area they indicated yesterday This area has basically collapsed This is due to both tropical waves experiencing the same general conditions that are interfering with Gabrielle.
It looked like a TS for a very short time. I think it may collapse before it encounters a more favorable environment.
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