Wx4cast: 09/18/2025

Looking at current conditions

The surface chart Shows the coastal low pulling away and moving into the Gulf of Maine, along with another shortwave trough moving through the region. Radar shows That the entire region is currently dry. Satellite shows the vast majority of region is under cloud free skies.

Today we will be dealing with a chance for a few isolated showers. But these will be very hit and miss and most won't see them. Later today Into tonight a back door cold front is going to drop down out of Canada sliding northwest to southeast. This will bring a chance for a few isolated showers to northern parts of New York State and into northern New England later this evening and tonight. Then on Friday the cold front will continue dropping through the region bringing the risk for a few isolated showers but that should be about it.

High pressure will be building in behind the cold front allowing much cooler and less humid air to move into the region along with a tighter pressure gradient leading to breezier conditions, winds look to gust 20-30 plus miles an hour.

And then for Saturday and Sunday high pressure overhead means the weather should be just about perfect for this time of year; with plenty of sun, seasonally cool fall like temperatures and dry conditions.

So, get out and enjoy the last weekend of summer as astronomical fall begins on Monday at 2:20 PM. Despite it being fall;Monday and Tuesday will feel more summer-like with warming temperatures and higher levels of humidity. On Monday a weak shortwave trough will move through bringing the chance for a few isolated showers but the vast amount of the region should experience a mix of sun and clouds. Then for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday a series of moisture starved cold fronts will drop through the region bringing the chance for isolated rain showers each day. If you're looking for any relief from our current drought situation I wouldn't hold my breath.

The drought

The current drought maps

This week

The region has been very dry for the last several weeks. August 2025 was the second driest august Since 1895. The pattern that led to the dry august has continued through September

This week, Because of that coastal low eastern Maryland into the Delmarva Peninsula saw a little bit of rain, with the rest of the region seeing very little to none. Temperatures have been average to below average for the last week; which has slowed down The worsening drought conditions. But in spite of that conditions have continued to get worse. Extreme drought conditions have expanded across New Hampshire and now extend into southern Maine. Severe drought expanded across northern new England And northern New York, as well as parts of Pennsylvania and now extends into western Maryland. The map shows an expansion of moderate drought across western Pennsylvania. The abnormally dry conditions have expanded across eastern Pennsylvania as well as Eastern Massachusetts and Maryland.

Last week

This week's drought monitor Showed that 3% of the northeast is now in extreme drought, 20% in severe drought, 22% in moderate drought and 37% is considered abnormally dry. Last week saw 1% of the northeast in extreme drought, 15% in severe drought, 21% in moderate drought with 36% experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

How the drought monitor works

The US drought monitor map is released every Thursday, it shows the measurements that were obtained on the previous Tuesday. The map breaks down conditions into 6 categories, None which means conditions are around normal, Abnormally dry (AO) which means that area is heading into drought, Then you have Moderate drought (D1), Severe drought (D2), Extreme drought (D3) and Exceptional drought (D4).

Types of drought

Those producing the drought monitor look at all of the data and factors to try and determine the extent of the drought.

What I think

When looking at the actual data. Drought conditions across the region are much worse than the drought monitor is indicating.

Ground water Levels are very low, soil moisture is very dry in most areas, stream flow across a large part of the region is very low some locations are even at record low levels.

In my opinion most of our region is experiencing either severe drought or moderate drought.

I'm not sure where the error is, hopefully the drought monitor can find and correct this error before next week's release of the drought monitor.

Here is a look at the last 30 days Rainfall amounts and departures from average