This string of sunny, summer-like days is coming to an end!

 

Current Surface Chart and Radar

Satellite

High pressure is still in control, but changes on the way.  Currently there isn’t much going on over the region. But we do have that frontal boundary to our north and a cold front approaching from the west. Today is going to be mostly dry and warm with above average temperatures with a touch of humidity.  We’re going to see clouds increase north to south as the day goes on. The frontal boundary to the north is going to end up stalling over Maine. Bringing the chance for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two during this afternoon into the evening. Those who get under the clouds will see temperatures back off a bit, but other than that, the day will be tranquil.

The area of low pressure with the cold front will approach tonight, the southern flow ahead of the front, will mean humidity is going to be increasing, there could be a few showers across western New York State and western Pennsylvania later tonight into Saturday morning. As the high pressure pushes east, the cold front will start to slowly move through across New York State and Pennsylvania there are going to be widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of these storms will be strong to severe. We’re likely to see a line of thunderstorms develop across western Pennsylvania and New York State and drop south and east. Moving across Pennsylvania, as well as the southern New York State along and south of I-90, these could also impact most of Connecticut, Massachusetts southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire.  These thunderstorms will be capable of strong winds, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rain, a tornado cannot be ruled out. Those with the greatest risk of see any large hail and the low chance of a tornado will be over western into central Pennsylvania.  Across western and northern New York State, northern and far western New England, across Long Island into New Jersey Maryland and Delaware the conditions won’t be as supportive for severe weather, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with the main risk being damaging winds and small hail.  The severe threat is going to last into the evening. 

The Storm Prediction Center

 Here’s a look at tomorrows convective outlook from the SPC

Here’s a look at tomorrows convective outlook from the SPC

The cold front should be sitting over southern Mayland, southern Delaware and southern New Jersey on Sunday. North of the front it will be much cooler and less humid. But temperatures will still be warm to hot along and south of the front.  Away from western Pennsylvania and western New York State Sunday won’t be a washout, but it will feature a chance for some scattered showers and possibility an isolated thunderstorm. For those south of the boundary, there will be the increased chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, there is a chance isolated thunderstorms could become strong to severe. and upper-70s for Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center

 

Here’s a look at Sunday’s convective outlook from the SPC

Monday will feature clearing skies as high pressure approaches. This high pressure will be in complete control come Tuesday, with lots of sunshine and temperatures beginning to climb a little. But we will be watching a frontal boundary approaching from the west. Temperatures will be climbing ahead of the front. Wednesday most of the region should be dry, but rain showers and some thunderstorms could become an issue over western parts of the region. This cold front will be slowly advancing across the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with the rain showers and thunderstorms advancing with it. This front will end up stalling over the region, allowing a trough to hang around keeping it unsettled.

 

Have a great day!