07/16/2025

 

Here's a look at the surface chart

The stationary boundary near the Mason Dixon line is going to move north as a warm front. As it does so it's going to kick off rain showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe. The main risk will be possibility of some strong damaging winds and heavy downpours.  The storm prediction center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather over western and central Pennsylvania and western into central New York State.

As the front moves north We will notice that the heat and humidity will increase. As the storms move in later this evening into eastern Pennsylvania and eastern New York State they should be weakening as the we will be losing the sun.

Tomorrow a cold front is going to move in ahead of the front it is going to be very hot and humid. As the front moves into this air mass it will kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms Some of these thunderstorms will be strong to severe with damaging winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. There is also going to be the low risk for a tornado or two. The SPC does have a Marginal Risk for severe weather over New York State into Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic and New England. There is a good chance that the SPC is going to increase the risk to a slight risk, but we will see.

The cold front will be pressing east Thursday night into Friday morning. After some lingering rain Friday morning we should notice clearing skies west to east with increased sunshine, Temperatures will be seasonal and humidity will be much lower. Saturday we'll see high pressure sitting overhead providing most of us with a tranquil day and comfortable humidity. Southwest Pennsylvania could see some rain showers move in ahead of an approaching frontal system out of the Ohio Valley. Sunday will feature a warm front followed by a cold front move through the region. This will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms with the warm front and then as the cold front comes through you will see more in the way of showers and thunderstorms. A few of which will be strong too severe. How widespread the severe is will depend on how much sun we see develop between the warm front and the cold front. On Monday the cold front will be to our east, most of the region should be dry lingering rain up over Maine. As the high pressure moves in temperatures should be seasonal. Tuesday will see the high pressure remain overhead providing a nice day for the entire region. Wednesday we'll see high pressure starting to slip east ahead of an approaching frontal system