10/01/2025

 October starts out coolish.

The surface chart Shows the stationary frontal boundary off the Coast directing the hurricanes away from the coast. Radar and the visible satellite show The region is dry with most of the region seeing clear skies; but there are variable clouds along the southern New England Coast down into of the Middle Atlantic. As well as up over Maine.

The surface chart Shows high pressure Is centered up in Canada This is directing a northeast flow down into the northeast and northern middle Atlantic Which is allowing the temperatures to be cool, generally below average for this time of year. Tonight it's gonna feel downright cold, expect to have to wear a sweater or a jacket if you're gonna be out and about. Tomorrow is going to be generally the same dry conditions and  slightly below average temperatures.  The typical higher elevations could see some frost over the next couple of mornings. So if you have sensitive plants make sure you take care of them.

Then on Friday the high pressure will be overhead, We're going to See dry and tranquil conditions. Along with this, we will start to see a southernly flow that will start us warming up for Friday afternoon.  Over the weekend as the high pressure starts to drift east more in the way of a southwest flow is going to develop and warm us up to above average temperatures for this time of year. The entire weekend is going to be dry. We have all just dry weather; the drought conditions are going to continue to expand across the region. I will discuss the drought tomorrow when the drought monitor comes out. 

Monday As the high pressure continues to pull away A stronger southwest flow will create breezy conditions and continue the warm up. Monday looks dry for the entire region. But we will be watching a cold front approach. It's possible a few isolated rain showers could break out over far western parts of New York State into northwest Pennsylvania Late Monday night or Monday overnight. The cold front is going to move through  for Tuesday into Wednesday. The cold front is going to be rather weak And moisture starved But it will bring more in the way of widespread scattered rain showers across the region. The cold front is going to put an end to the above average temperatures as cooler air sinks in out of Canada behind it. Behind this cooling; we could see another warm up; before we get closer to the middle of the month and a pattern change looks to develop that will bring us much cooler temperatures for the second half of March.

Tropics

Humberto is post tropical With maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, Minimum central pressure of 980MB and tracking east northeast at 23 mph . Imelda Imelda is a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, minimum central pressure of 966MB. She is galloping east northeast at 20 mph heading straight for Bermuda. Her winds have not caught up to the pressure drop.  So further strengthening is possible today. Later tonight into tomorrow morning she could be a strong category  2 or maybe a weak category 3 as she slams into Bermuda. 

As Imelda Heads east of Bermuda She is going to absorb what's left of Humberto. Then Humberto and Imelda  are going to end up merging with the trough; that kicked them away from the East Coast of the United States. Then all of this is going to impact northern Europe Friday and Saturday as a powerful extra tropical mid level cyclone.