Windy trick or treating!

 A quick post  for the weather over the next 6-7 days.

This Halloween we're dealing with windy conditions creating not the greatest conditions for those ghosts and witches out trick or treating. Generally these unsettled conditions will be with us to start the month of November.

Today We're dealing with a series of troughs that will pass through the region bringing scattered clouds and rain showers along with gusty winds generally from 15-30 miles an hour August of 40-50 miles an hour possible, The higher elevations Could experience wind gust of 45 to as much as 55 mph.  Temperatures are gonna be seasonally cool. Tonight we are still gdealing with troughs moving through the region But the winds will shift direction and calm down a bit generally 5-20 miles an hour With gust upwards of around 30 miles an hour possible. So it won't be the greatest conditions to be out and about so make sure you can see and be seen. Those out driving around be aware there will be a lot of people out milling around. For those downwind of the Great Lakes you will be dealing with enhanced lake effect rain/snow showers. For tonight The Tug Hill and the Adirondacks will likely see rain change over to some snow generally accumulations shouldn't be too bad ranging from a dusting to perhaps 3-4 inches. The summits of the greens could see a few inches, while those  under 2,000 feet end up with a dusting to perhaps an inch. The highest points in the Whites could also see a bit of light snow.

Tomorrow these troughs will continue to pass through the region bringing again scattered clouds and some rain showers Along with gusty winds continuing Generally 10-20 miles an hour With gust of 30 to maybe as much as 40 miles an hour possible. High pressure is going to approach the region with skies clearing developing and winds backing back off to 5-10 miles an hour for tomorrow night.

Remember for Saturday night before you go to bed to set your clocks back an hour, as we revert to standard time!

Sunday the high pressure will be overhead producing scattered clouds with fairly light winds of 5-10 miles an hour or so. Daytime  temperatures will be on the chilly side. Then on Monday another area of low pressure will move through bringing variable clouds and some rain showers. Again Monday 's temperatures will be on the coolest side. Behind the departing area of low pressure high pressure will move back in for Tuesday. Tuesday will experience gusty winds once again and temperatures will be cooling off even more. The high pressure looks to remain overhead for Wednesday;There will be a chance for a few showers here and there. But many of us probably won't see any. Then for Thursday another area of low pressure moves through bringing a better chance for rain showers. Then we'll have high pressure move back in for Friday.

Drought and Melissa

 

The current drought conditions here in the Northeast. 

The drought across the northeast Continues to persist. But we did see some areas that saw some improvement this week. The extreme drought conditions did improve Across Vermont New Hampshire into western Maine. The severe and moderate drought conditions Across western New York State and western Pennsylvania also saw improvement. But not everyone has seen meaningful rainfall. Extreme drought conditions worsened over southern Maine. The moderate drought conditions expanded across northern New York State.

The drought monitor release today for our region shows, 11% in extreme drought, 23% In severe drought, 31% In moderate drought, with 28% of the region still experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

This compares To 12%, 24%, 28% and 29% last week.

Melissa

Image credit Eric Boreham

After leaving Death and destruction in the north west Caribbean. Melissa has pulled away from the Bahamas, As she heads towards Bermuda.

Image credit Tomer Burg

The National Hurricane Center currently has her a Category 2 with maximum sustained winds at 105 mph, Central pressure of 965MB, Galloping north northeast at 24 mph. She is around 215 miles Northeast of the central Bahamas.  She looks to pass north of Bermuda as a category 1 or category 2 hurricane.

Alexa has been basically holding her own In the face of strong wind shear. But as she continues to move northeast She will be moving into colder waters And the wind shear will still remain strong. She still has a limited window To gain a little more strength. Before the conditions catch up to her and she starts the weekend later today into the night transferring into an extra tropical cyclone. The name change won't change her impact on Bermuda, as her wind field will expand and the increased forward speed, will bring hurricane conditions to Bermuda, as she passes to the north.

10/30/2025

 October ends with rain and a lot of wind.

Next couple of days aren't going to be great. As we will see A lot of rain and gusty winds. Last Halloween Was very warm and tranquil. That won't be the case this year as trick or treaters Will be faced with Rain and windy conditions, As mother nature issues a nice big trick.

Here's a look at the surface chart and Northeast radar.

We have the developing primary upper level low in the Ohio Valley. The rain associated with this will continue to advance as the upper level tracks southwest to northeast and continues to move into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. We also have Surface low developing over the Middle Atlantic. Later today And tomorrow We are going to see the primary transfers energy to that secondary low. Then that secondary will become the primary and be the main driver of our weather for Halloween into Saturday.

As the rain advances through the region We can expect to see a general 1-2 " of rain We have locally higher amounts possible. Some parts of eastern Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware New Jersey And likely New York city long island into Connecticut Will have a greater chance to see higher rain amounts. The rain will advance into Vermont and New Hampshire this evening. Then move through Maine tonight. Rain will be heavy at times.

Winds are going to be very gusty today Winds of 10-25 mph, With wind gust of 30-40 mph, Along the coast And in the higher elevations Wind gust of 50 mph or so Or so will be possible. 

Tonight Into friday morning Rain will be lessening and ending across Pennsylvania, Maryland Delaware New Jersey into southern New England. But New York state And northern into central new England will still be dealing with rain as the system pulls north. When's will still be gusty tomorrow With gust of 30-40 plus miles an hour still possible. As the cold air starts filtering in We will see rain turn over to some set snow Across the higher elevations (2000 + Feet) across the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites. Accumulations across the greens Will likely be a dusting with perhaps an inch in spots. Snow mounts across the  Adirondacks and  Tug Hill could be 1-3  inches with locally higher amounts possible. The lake effect rain will likely change over to some snow this evening Lasting into Friday. The rain and snow will be letting up as the day goes on. But the lake effect effect could  continue into Saturday for those downwind Of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

The system will be pulling away on Saturday But winds are still going to be very gusty The winds will start subsiding as the day goes on. Rain should be over for most of us But there could be still lingering rain up over Maine into New Hampshire. Saturday is going to be much cooler  than we've seen over the last few days.  Saturday night Into Monday High pressure is going to approach and move in overhead. The region should be mainly dry during this time. On Tuesday We will be having a trough approaching out of Canada. The high pressure will slip south a bit, Allowing for the chance For some rain over New York State into northern New England. The rest of the region should be dry to mostly dry. The high pressure reasserts Itself for Wednesday. Before giving way to another cold front For Thursday.

10/29/2025

 The storm is developing.

Today is going to be mainly dry with seasonal conditions and light winds, There could be a few showers Southern Pennsylvania Maryland and Delaware today but these should be scattered. This will be the calm before the storm. On the Surface chart and satellite we can see the developing disturbance currently centered over the Ozarks. Out ahead of it there is a lot of rain.  This storm This storm is going to continue to deepen as it heads towards the lower Great Lakes and Western Pennsylvania. Today is going to feature increasing clouds, as things continue to evolve.The

Tonight We will see Rain moving in From southwest to northeast. The rain will continue to advance during overnight and tomorrow. The rain looks to make it into western new England Tomorrow evening. Then moving into Maine Thursday night Into Friday morning. The rain is going to be Widespread for Thursday and Friday, Winds on both days will also be Very gusty, With sustained winds of 10-20 5 mph With wind gust Of 30-40 plus miles an hour. General rainfall amounts across the region will be 1-2 inches, With localized amounts of 3-4 inches quite possible. Rain will be heavy at times this will be especially true for eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey into southern New England. Halloween Friday we'll see some improvement as the rain will lessen across Pennsylvania Maryland Delaware New Jersey into southern new England. But elsewhere rain should continue although it should be lighter than it was on Thursday. Friday is going to be very cool, with temperatures running below average. The winds are going to make it feel even colder. The conditions are going to be nasty. So those trick or treating are going to want to bundle up and be ready to deal with some rain. Has the colder air comes in over the Great Lakes there could be some snow for later friday /friday night, for the most part accumulations in the snow belts should be 1 to maybe 3 inches. The conditions are also going to be making driving difficult with poor visibility. So keep that in mind, where possibly a lot of people will be moving around.

Saturday we'll see the storm pulling away But winds are still going to be very breezy. Those downwind of the great lakes can expect lake effect rain showers mixing in with snow at times.  Over the weekend we will see a series of shortwave troughs move through bringing chance for a few rain showers. The wind should be much lower for Sunday, As high pressure approaches. The high pressure looks to sit overhead for Monday providing chilly conditions but it looks to be dry. Tuesday a weak trough will move in Increasing the risk for some rain showers. Wednesday looks to see high pressure move back in. Next week It's looking increasingly likely that there will be some snow in some parts of New York State and northern New England; We will see if that continues to be the case as we move forward.

Hurricane Melissa

She slammed Jamaica causing a lot of destruction With whole towns underwater. I know before she made landfall 7 people had died in Jamaica, Since then Then I have heard no other reports on deaths, Hopefully the  death toll stays low. Due to the land interaction and Increased wind shear she hit Cuba as a category 3 hurricane. Currently she is a category 2 with maximum sustain winds of 100 mph, central pressure of 974mb, tracking northeast at 14 mph as she heads for the Bahamas. Right now, she looks to pass near or just to the west of Bermuda later Thursday.

Image credit Tomer Burg

Melissa is historic

 Here in the Northeast

Strong high pressure is still in control, centered up near Hudson Bay.

We do have an area of low pressure sitting off the South Carolina coast. This is going to continue to push east out to sea and will not be an influence on our weather. Our next weather maker centered over the northern Plains, Will start to bring some of us some rain on Wednesday. Then for Thursday this is going to bring the region widespread rain.

For today it will be mainly dry but a few spotty showers will be possible over Eastern New England and winds are  light. After a cool start temperatures are going to recover and end up slightly above average for this time of year.

Tomorrow we'll see clouds starting to increase with a chance for a few showers across parts of southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware into New Jersey. North of there There will still be a chance for some spotty rain showers. The storm is going to be lifting Into western Pennsylvania Wednesday night into Thursday, With rain advancing southwest to northeast. Thursday starts out with scattered rain showers. That will become more widespread as the day goes on. General rainfall amount across the region on Thursday look to be 1-2  inches with some higher amounts possible. Rains will be locally extremely heavy at times. Steady winds across the region look to be 15-25 mph. Winds are going to be gusty with gust of 30-40 mph with some higher gust possible.

For Halloween Friday much of the region will be seen improving conditions as the storm starts to pull away. But we will still be seeing widespread moderate to  heavy rain up over Maine into New Hampshire, with conditions improving Friday night. Away from northeast New England the rest of the region is still going to be dealing with at least light rain showers it won't be raining all the time but it won't be pleasant. Those with the best chance of seeing more in the way of these light rain showers will be over northern New York State into Vermont. Halloween is still going to see gusty winds that could gust as high as 40 mph at times. So those trick or treating will have to dress in layers under their costumes and be prepared for the chance for rain. Behind the storm temperatures are going to become quite cool for Halloween into November. Over the weekend we will have a series of shortwave troughs moving through bringing a chance for a few showers. With the colder temperatures some snow will be possible in those typical higher  elevation areas across New York State and New England. Sunday night and Monday We will see a stronger trough dropping in from the north, This will bring a better chance For scattered rain showers across the region. Behind this trough high pressure will build in for Tuesday bringing in temperatures that are well below average.

Melissa in the Caribbean

She became even stronger overnight, As of the 10:00 AM update, the National Hurricane Center now has her maximum sustained winds at 185 mph, a minimum central pressure of 892mb. As expected she has picked up her pace, she is now tracking north northeast at 7 mph.

Image credit Eric Boreham

Image credit Tomer Burg

She will be making landfall on the southwest coast of Jamaica by early this afternoon, near New Hope. Jamaica's story and fate have already been set, as she will bring extremely catastrophic impacts to the island. She is going to weaken over Jamaica. Then she is going to move back across 90 miles of open water before reaching eastern Cuba Where she will have extreme impacts. Over the open water she could try to regain intensty. After Cuba the southern Bahamas and then Bermuda are in her sights.

Based on atmospheric central pressure Melissa is the 3rd strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin on record. She ties with the 1935 labor day hurricane. Only two other hurricanes have had lower central pressures since records have been kept, In second place is Gilbert back in 1988 at 888mb. With Wilma in 2005 sitting in 1st place, with a central pressure of 882mb. The only Atlantic hurricane to have stronger winds than Melissa was hurricane Alan back in 1980, with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph.

Melissa continues to get stronger!

A quick update on Melissa

As I said, she likely would become stronger than the  160 mph hurricane the National Hurricane Center  was forecasting just yesterday, Melissa continues to get stronger, and is now an extremely powerful category 5 with maximum sustained winds  of 175 mph and the pressure is now down to 906mb. She is starting to take that turn and is now tracking west northwest still at 3 mph. As those upper level steering currents force her towards Jamaica.

Image credit Alex Boreham

Image credit Tomer Burg.

So far she has avoided going through the typical eye wall replacement cycles that would have helped Keep her upper end winds in check. Instead she continues to explode!

On satellite she is looking very impressive especially when you consider she's an Atlantic hurricane. Her satellite profile shows what you would typically see in the strongest western Pacific super typhoons. Here is an image courtesy of Alex Boreham that shows her impressive rapid intensification process that she has been going through, After that brief plateau that I mentioned yesterday she has continued to explode. And is now approaching the upper limit of what is considered possible for an Atlantic hurricane. So while further strengthening is possible She is just right now very close to the peak of her power. While it's possible we could see a eye wall replacement cycle before she hits Jamaica. Eye wall replacement cycles temporarily lower  the winds in the hurricane, as the overall Wind field expands. But right now it doesn't look like one will occur in the near future. We could see some fluctuations in her overall power up until she makes a landfall on Jamaica early tomorrow morning. But even if she weakens, she very well could still hit Jamaica at close to  her peak.

The arrow shows that pause I'm talking about.

The 2025 hurricane season has been a little strange when it comes to overall activity. Melissa is the 3rd category 5 hurricane of the 2025 hurricane season. Only the hurricane season of 2005 saw a season with more category 5s. 2005 saw Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma. So far Melissa has been crawling, but as she continues to make this turn towards Jamaica, she should pick up in her forward speed and make that landfall on western Jamaica tomorrow morning.

10/27/2025

 The weekend was cool but basically dry. The high pressure is still in control Of our weather pattern For today Today will still be a bit cool, but the region will continue to stay dry. The surface chart and radar show nothing going on over the region.

We have high pressure centered up in Canada north of the great lakes that is dominating the local weather pattern. With  the cold front well off-shore the region is mainly dry with perhaps a isolated shower or two up over eastern Maine. These showers are retrograding in from the Atlantic

The infrared satellite shows a lot of sun over most of the region with variable clouds up over northeast New England from that upper level low. The satellite also  shows major hurricane Melissa down near Jamaica.   The satellite does show the active weather pattern over the US. We have that upper level low Sitting up over the gulf of Maine and Atlantic Canada We also have another upper level low that is sitting over the mid Tennessee Valley. This upper level low is going to continue to push east. Where it will pick up Melissa and force her to turn north and then northeast. The satellite also shows That disturbance Dropping out of the western Canadian Providences into Montana and North Dakota. This disturbance is going to continue to drop south and east and into the Southeast, then starting Wednesday it will have an impact on our region here in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic.

I will talk a little bit more about Melissa later in the post But frankly there isn't much more than I can say. I hope my post on Melissa have been informative and that you found them accurate and worthwhile. I know many of you might  find talking about hurricanes that won't impact our region all that useful. But they are a major story and I do have people who are closer to these  regions who follow the page. So I post on them!

The high pressure is going to remain in control for tomorrow into Wednesday. Providing scattered clouds and warming temperatures, I can't rule out a few spotty showers. Then on Wednesday we will be watching that disturbance to our south. During Wednesday a few showers will be possible over southern Pennsylvania  along with Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and perhaps for Long Island into extreme southern New England. For Wednesday night and Thursday that disturbance is going to continue to push north into western Pennsylvania. Then Thursday and Thursday night, the region is going to start to see widespread rain that will be locally heavy. General rainfall amounts across the region look to be 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts very possible, The heaviest rain looks to fall across eastern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic and central to eastern New York State and New England. Winds will also be on the increase with sustained Southern winds of 15-30 mph.The winds will  become very gusty with winds of 30-50 mph, with higher gust possible especially in the higher elevations and across Cape Cod and off-shore islands. Most of the rain looks to hold off across northeast New England on Thursday, Moving in for Thursday night and Friday. On Friday conditions will be improving across most of the region, as the area of low pressure moves out. But Maine is going to continue to see the rain into Friday evening. With  the high winds make sure y'all secure your Halloween decorations. Last week I was talking about the possibility of some snow Out of the system But that area of low pressure is going to move into the region further west than I had thought. This will keep most of the region on the warm side of the storm; so I don't think anybody's gonna see any snow out of it. 

The worst of the conditions for Halloween Friday will be up over Maine Into New Hampshire; where you will be dealing with a lot of rain and strong winds. The rest of the region should be mainly dry But winds are still going to be quite breezy Temperatures are also going to be rather cool. So anybody going out trick or treating will need to take the weather in consideration when getting ready for your festivities. Over the weekend we are going to see a series of shortwave troughs move through the region on Saturday bringing the chance for a few rain showers. Then on Sunday another area of low pressure is going to move into the region bringing the chance for rain showers. This area of low pressure won't be near as strong as the one we're going to be dealing with on Thursday. Then for Monday yet another area of low pressure will approach out of the Great Lakes and move through. This will be accompanied by a strong cold front bringing gusty conditions, rain and much colder conditions behind it.

Major hurricane Melissa.

Melissa is a category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 165mph, a minimum central pressure of 908 MB, Tracking west at 3 mph.

As I said above There isn't much more that I can say about Melissa that I haven't already said in the days previous to this. The only little change has been a slight nudge to the south with her track. But we can expect these wobbles and nudges to occur over the next 24 hours or so. Once she starts to interact with that trough up over the United States she is going to abruptly turn north and head towards Jamaica. At some point most likely today She is going to start that turn to the north with a landfall looking likely for early Tuesday morning as a Category 5, west of Kingston across western into central Jamaica. She is going to bring catastrophic impacts. I pray those across the island will heed warnings and seek safe shelter and not try to ride this out and hunker down in their houses. Once she moves away from Jamaica she is going to impact eastern Cuba as a major hurricane bringing devastating winds and rainfall. The setup has evolved a bit and it now looks like Melissa is going to target the southern Bahamas She will likely still be a major hurricane at that point. The Turks and Caicos look to stay more on the fringe of Melissa's impact. But any wobbles in her track could change this so those in the Turks and Caicos will have to keep a close eye on this.

A look at the rainfall forecast for the next 3 days.

Melissa is going to stay south and east of the East Coast of the United States Our region up here in the Northeast will see no direct impact or other than some wave and  rip tide action, no indirect impact from Melissa. Right now Melissa looks to be approaching Bermuda Thursday night into Friday

Hurricane Melissa

 As expected hurricane Melissa went through rapid intensification and is now a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and a central pressure of 953MB. Her forward speed had increased to 5 mph, but the 11a.m. update shows her back to tracking west at 3 mph, about 110 miles south of eastern Jamaica.

On satellite we can see that she has indeed become the monster that she was feared she would be.

Nothing has really changed with what I discussed yesterday. We are awaiting for her to officially become a Category 5 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center shows her peaking at around 160 mph. It is certainly possible that is underdone, and she could become even stronger than that. Hurricanes are creatures of water and are much more than just wind. Even before she underwent her rapid intensification she was already a killer, having killed people in Hispaniola, due to days of her relentless rain pounding the region. Melissa is going to be a historic storm possibly rivaling Hurricane Mitch. This is not hyperbole, the setup supports this grim possibility!

Image credit Tomer Burg

The hurricane hunters Indicate she may have plateaued for the moment. But I still fear that she will become a category 5 later today or tomorrow. The National Hurricane Centers forecast shows her plowing into Jamaica as a strong Category 4. But it's equally possible She will hit them as a Category 5. But really that distinction is rather meaningless As her impact will be catastrophic, regardless of the number that she has been assigned. She is approaching Jamaica from the south. That is going to maximize the impact of the incredible storm surge that she is going to generate. The storm surge Is looking to be 9 to perhaps as much as 15 feet. The rainfall forecast is showing as much as 40 inches of rain could fall over eastern Jamaica.

The image shows  widespread rainfall of 15-30  inches will be possible across Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba. The rain is going to lead to catastrophic flooding, landslides and mudslides. After hitting Jamaica, she will make a landfall on eastern Cuba most likely as a Category 4 hurricane. Once past Cuba She is going to head towards the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, possibly still as a major hurricane.

She is going to start to have a major impact on Jamaica starting tomorrow afternoon with a landfall likely sometime Tuesday morning. Those in her path need to be completing preparations and everyone involved needs to find safe shelter. 

I am very worried for those in this part of the Caribbean, prayers for all of you!

Melissa and the Coastal

 The midweek Coastal and Halloween

A storm that will be dropping out of Pacific northwest and another currently over the southern plains into the Ozarks are going to work their way east. This will have some impact on Melissa's track that I will talk about later on in this post But first, the future coastal storm looks too deepen as it heads for the Southeast Coast. Then from there it is going to move north and east up the Coast.

This coastal is going to present a big problem all the way from South Carolina to Maine. With all the major hurricanes and coastal storms in the Atlantic this year The coast has already been hit hard with beach erosion. The lack of that sand barrier along the coast from the Carolinas into the Middle Atlantic and New England, means there's an increased risk of coastal flooding coming a bit further inland than is typical. This will be especially true for along the New Jersey Coast and for the coast of Southeast New England.

The entire northeast for the second half Is going to be seen rain It won't be raining all the time. Wednesday as an area of low pressure off the coast and a shortwave dropping across the Ohio valley and moving south and east. This is going to develop into a coastal low.  it could bring rain to south southern Pennsylvania and in northern middle of Atlantic with even a chance for a rain snow mix for the Poconos and Catskills. This will head out to sea. Then we will be dealing with this coastal/northeaster for Thursday and Friday. Another wave of low pressure looks to develop and move up the Coast bringing blustery conditions and rain to the region. The heaviest rain looks to be over  Maine and Atlantic Canada. At this time the northern middle Atlantic looks to be spared the brunt of this but this could change. We are going to have the coldest air so far this season working into the northeast, so the chance for accumulating snow across parts of the Appalachians a and higher elevations of the northeast is definitely on the table.

The coastal combined with Melissa will create a lot of wave action and rip-tides for The East Coast.

The first part of November is still looking cold and wintery.The 1st part of November

Melissa

I've been posting on Melissa for several days, Unlike Melissa Which has been wavering and sitting and spinning, My discussions on Melissa have been non varied for the most part. So far she's been basically doing as I've been outlining. As I said many times, tropical cyclones especially ones like Melissa have  big bags of tricks; that they can pull things out of and throw monkey wrenches into the works. Will my outlook for Melissa continue to be mostly correct? That's going to depend on if Melissa reaches into that bag.

Sea surface temperatures and wind shear work hand and hand When dealing with tropical cyclones.  Tropical cyclones typically need SSTs of at least 80°F in order to develop a warm core. Normally any water temperatures colder than that mean the storm will weaken and or dissipate. Equally important is wind shear. Wind shear involves the change of direction and speed of wind with height. For the purpose of this post it will Deal with vertical.  Vertical shear involves a change in direction of the winds with height.

Melissa had been very disrupted and weak with her surface low jumping around a bit for3 to 4 days. The reason for this has to do with that fire hose of wind shear that's been keeping her surface low  from aligning  with her mid level and upper low. This is a phenomenon called vertical stacking. That strong wind shear has been blowing the mid level and upper level low east of her surface low. A vertically stacked hurricane has the surface low, Mid level low and the upper low sitting over the top of each other. When the hurricane is vertically stacked It allows the air to flow upwards very easily which helps strengthen the hurricane even more as convection (thunderstorms) continue to build bigger and bigger. When we have sinking air it has the exact opposite effect by interfering with the development of convection.

Tropical cyclones grow and become powerful hurricanes when they are vertically stacked. I've been talking about Melissa being lopsided over the last several posts. This is because the direction and speed of the winds at the surface are different than they are at the mid and upper levels. This has caused Melissa to lean in the direction of the windshear; which had kept her very weak with winds staying 45 mph to 50 mph and the central pressure ranging from around 1002MB To 1004MB over the last several days. This is an important concept when dealing with what might happen with Melissa down the road.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) and windshear

Melissa started to become better organized and started strengthening yesterday later afternoon, Becoming a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds and her central pressure dropping to 995MB at the 5:00 PM update on Friday. Currently the National Hurricane Center has her maximum sustained winds at 70 mph with a central pressure of 982MB. She is crawling west northwest at around 1 mph.

The sea surface temperatures Around Melissa are running 86°F To 88°F

Wind shear is lessening and this trend should continue

Dry air in the northwest Caribbean into Gulf of America

Another important element involving tropical cyclones is that they need a lot of atmospheric moisture. When the air is dry It leads to evaporation. Evaporation leads to further drying of the atmosphere.  This lack of moisture Interferes with the thunderstorm's development and causes the storm to weaken.

On the infrared satellite above We can see that she is much better organized And looks really healthy from what she looked like yesterday. Currently she is on the cusp of officially becoming a hurricane. Which likely will happen sometime today.

As I've been As I've been saying, Melissa is over very warm water, that runs deep. If she can continue to stay away from that wind shear that has been created by that upper level high to her north. She will become vertically stacked and most likely rapidly intensify Into a Category 4 or maybe Category 5 hurricane. Over the last couple of days she has been battling and mixing out some of that dust. That dust to her west and northwest is gonna be kind of a wild card. If this can become ingested into her circulation it will help interrupt her strengthening keeping her weaker, maybe much weaker, than the model forecast.

upper level winds

Where's Melissa going?

Yesterday's super ensemble

Today's super ensemble

Right now it looks like she's going to make a direct hit on Jamaica. Then make a second landfall on eastern Cuba, again likely still a major hurricane. After Cuba she will likely set her sights on either the southeast Bahamas or the  Turks and Caicos. Based on her current forward speed She could make landfall on Jamaica as a category 4 or maybe a category 5 late Monday or Tuesday. The national weather service has issued hurricane warnings for the entire island. Jamaica, Haiti into the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba can expect extreme winds, severe rainfall and devastating storm surge.

4 day rainfall forecast from NOAA

The amount of rain that's going to fall Is going to be catastrophic.  Jamaica, Haiti , Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba will see at least 12 inches with localized amounts of 30+ inches possible across eastern Jamaica and southwest Haiti . This is going to bring dangerous life threatening landslides mudslides and excessive flooding. In addition to all of this There is going to be a devastating powerful Storm surge.

She will undoubtedly be a weaker hurricane due to land interaction after she is pulling away from Cuba, as she's heading for the southern Bahamas and or Turks and Caicos. But still it is quite possible she could still be a strong Category 2 or even weak Category 3 at that time. Right now she looks to stay well south and east of Florida and the East Coast of the United States.  But that will depend partly on frontal interaction.

10/23/2025

 Cool and unsettled.

The surface chart, radar and satellite

Surface chart shows the cold front well to the east with a series of shortwave troughs moving across the region keeping us cool And unsettled. Away from the great light there will be a chance for some light rain showers but these will be isolated. Downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie we have those cooler winds moving across the warmer lakes Producing lake effect rain showers. On the radar we can see the upper level low that is spinning over the great lakes. This is responsible for all these troughs moving through that will keep us unsettled for the next couple of days.

Friday night and over the weekend high pressure will be approaching and setting up overhead. This will keep us cool but most of us look to stay completely dry. These cool but tranquil conditions last  for Monday and Tuesday. Then as we approach Halloween It will turn unsettled again. So if you have fall chores you will have a few days to finish them.

Wednesday we're going to be watching an area low pressure trying to develop South and east off the coast. As this develops Wednesday night and Thursday it is going to move north and east. If this tracks close enough to the coast It could bring rain to the northern Middle Atlantic, New England and eastern New York State. However it is very possible that this could track far enough south and east that our region sees little impact from it. Depending on the track there is a chance that this could bring some snow to the higher elevations of the Northeast. It's even possible there could be some snow in Appalachians. Depending on the exact track this could make for a very windy Thursday and Halloween. Over the last few days I have been talking about the end of October and first part of November looking to get quite cold. This storm very well could tap in to that cold air up over northern Canada and redirect it into the central and eastern United States. This could be the coldest start to November that we've seen in at least the last 5 or 6 years. I've been talking about this for a while now. So none of y'all should be surprised!

The drought

This week

Last week

The region saw a lot of variety in precipitation amounts. Areas that saw quite a bit of rain saw some improvements in their overall drought conditions. Looking at the maps we can see the improvements that happened in southwest Pennsylvania and northwest Vermont. Drought conditions expanded in areas that didn't see notable rain. Moderate drought expanded across southern Maryland, southern New Jersey ,Eastern Pennsylvania and northern New York State. Extreme and severe drought expanded across central and northern. Maine. The US drought monitor release today shows. 12% of the region in extreme drought, 24% in severe drought, 28% in moderate drought And 29% with abnormally dry conditions.

Tropical storm Melissa

The national hurricane center is showing Melissa has sustained winds of 45 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1003MB.Tracking west northwest at around 2 mph.

On satellite we can see Melissa is being severely disrupted by strong windshear leaving her with a lopsided appearance with most of her conviction (thunderstorms) to the east of her center.

She is crawling over SSTs of 86°F-88°F with very warm water extending hundreds of  feet below the surface. Which is more than enough to support a hurricane.

Over the weekend, Melissa will drift and stay just south of the influence of that upper level high that has been causing all this wind shear. With the wind shear drastically weakening, Melissa will undoubtedly undergo rapid development becoming a major hurricane as she drifts near Jamaica. A category 5 is certainly possible.

image credit Tomer Burg

With her extremely slow forward motion She is going to be a huge rainmaker for that part of the Caribbean. She looks to bring a foot or more of rain to Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti

A dip in the jet stream is likely to force Melissa to turn with a possible landfall in eastern Cuba early next week. I've seen post on social media that are showing Melissa getting close to the Northeast as a hurricane. Possibly even making a direct impact. While anything is possible, The odds of this occurring are extremely and I mean extremely low. While the setup looks to keep Melissa's direct impacts away from the East Coast, a hit on southern Florida cannot be ruled out.

That's it. I made this a detailed forecast because I'm not sure if I'm going to release anything tomorrow. But who knows!