10/21/2025

Yesterday was windy, wet and cool !

Yesterday's rain wasn't a drought buster, but it did help with needed rain.

The surface chart shows one area of low pressure up over Atlantic Canada with a cold front off the coast. It also shows a frontal system with an attached warm front and trailing cold front approaching from the west that is currently extended over the Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. In between these two cold fronts we have a few Shortwave troughs moving across the region. Today we'll see plenty of sunshine Ahead of that western frontal system. Clouds will be increasing as the day goes on as this pushes in from the west.

The radar shows the rain coming in from the west ahead of that approaching cold front.The rain is going to slowly move west to east across the region. A few showers could make it into Central New York State into Pennsylvania  during this afternoon with things becoming a little more widespread during the evening.  Rain showers will be moving into eastern New York State this evening most likely after the sun sets. The rain will work into western New England later this evening and tonight. The rain will move into The northern Middle Atlantic region and eastern New England later tonight. Rain will linger into Wednesday morning as the front continues to push to the east. Don't be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder as this front is moving through the region. These thunderstorms should be non - severe. General rainfall amounts look to be 0.10 of an inch to 0.25 of an inch, with some areas perhaps seeing as much as 0.50 of an inch.

Behind the cold front a west to northwest flow means  cooler air is going to move in overhead for the rest of the week. These temperature should be seasonal to slightly below average. Both Wednesday and Thursday winds should be fairly gusty, With  gust possible as high as 30-35 mph. Thursday and Friday we'll see a series of shortwave trials move across the region keeping things unsettled with chances for isolated rain showers. Lake effect rain showers will be possible for later Wednesday and Thursday. As I said yesterday  Thursday night into Friday there will be a chance for some light snow showers up in the mountains of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites. Friday should see the winds becoming less.

Saturday we'll see high pressure approach the region. Then for the rest of Saturday this high pressure will move in overhead into Sunday. Over the weekend especially on Sunday There will be enough cold air sliding over Lake Ontario and Lake Erie to produce some lake effect rain showers downwind of both lakes. The rest of the region should be mainly dry with only a very slight chance for an isolated shower.

For Monday and Tuesday a strong area of high pressure is going to move in overhead. Both days should see warmer temperatures and dry conditions.

November is looking to start out quite cold.

The Caribbean

As expected we now have tropical storm Melissa moving across the Caribbean. Currently the national hurricane center has her maximum sustained winds at 50 mph With a minimum central pressure of 1003MB. She is moving west at around 14 mph.

She was dealing with a bit of dry air. It looks like She has insulated her center enough to become a tropical storm. But on the satellite image you can see  she's still a little bit lopsided, Due to that moderate to high windshear. She should continue to slow down over the next few days lingering Maybe even stalling. over those very warm sea surface temperatures with deep oceanic heat content. Do to this, we should see her gradually intensifying and developing over the next few days. The setup and conditions are such that Melissa could be a major hurricane By the time we get into this coming weekend sitting near Jamaica south of Hispaniola.

But regardless of development Melissa is going to be a major rainmaker for Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola.

Image credit Tomer Burg

The steering currents in the Caribbean are going to be very weak. How Melissa tracks will depend on her strength at the time and how she can weave her way in between two areas of high pressure. It is possible She could get pulled towards Hispaniola. The longer she stays weak the better the chance she will continue westward towards Nicaragua and Honduras.

10/20/2025

 It's going to be a active week!

The surface chart and radar shows the upper level low and the cold front moving across the region bringing with it the rain along with a few embedded thunderstorms. The upper level low is going to slide across Pennsylvania,  New York State and New England. This will keep most the scattered rain shower activity across New York state and new England, With Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey end up seeing more in the way of isolated rain shower during the day. General rainfall amounts across Pennsylvania, New York State and new England look to be generally 1⁄4 of an inch to 3⁄4 of an inch, with those who see  the heavier rain showers seeing perhaps 1" to 1.5". Rainfall across the northern Middle Atlantic looks to be moving out during this afternoon. However across New York State and Western New England will be moving out tonight. With the rain over Maine looking to settle down during the overnight.

Temperatures today Are going to be cooler than you were yesterday, But they're still going to be fairly seasonal.. We're going to be having a tightening pressure gradient Over New York state and new England as the upper level low continues to move west to east This will lead to winds becoming gusty 15-25 miles an hour with some 30 to 40 miles an hour possible,especially in the higher elevations and along the New England coast. Again the northern middle Atlantic will avoid the worst of the wind.

Tuesday during the day much the region looks fairly nice with winds being lighter. Those with the greatest chance of seeing rain showers will be across northwest New England. Temperatures again tomorrow will be seasonal. Then tomorrow night into Wednesday we will watch another weaker cold front will approach and move through west to east. This cold front will again bring the chance for scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms. We are going to cool off behind this front.  Then for Thursday and Friday we will see a series of troughs move through the region with variable clouds and keeping the threat for isolated rain showers in the forecast. The further north you are the greater your chance of seeing rain. Thursday night into Friday, there will be a chance for some snow up across the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites.  Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds along with a chance for a few isolated showers but the vast majority of us should stay dry. For Saturday night and Sunday high pressure will be moving in overhead, Most of the region should stay dry. Then for Monday a warm front will move through allowing temperatures to warm back up; as we watch the approaching cold front for Tuesday. With the warm front will come the chance for widely isolated rain showers.

The rain this week will end up putting a dent in the drought conditions across the region. But it won't be a drought buster. As I've been saying we're in a deep hole and it's going to take us a while to get out.

The tropical wave in the Caribbean.

Image credit Tomer Burg

Invest 98L is being given 2 day development odds of 50% and an 80% chances over the next 7 days for development. On satellite this is becoming increasingly organized. 98L is starting to slow down as anticipated. It's currently moving westward at around 18 miles an hour.

With the slowing speed and warm sea surface temperature this will likely become a tropical depression over the next 24 hours or so! 98L Is going to slow to a crawl, over water that has a deep oceanic heat content with lighter windshear. 

The odds favor this becoming Melissa later this week. Future Melissa is going to be dealing with opposing steering currents. Her most likely path is going to be heading towards Hispaniola or eastern Cuba. But there is still a path open for her to try to head towards Nicaragua and Honduras. 

Image credit Tomer Burg

The odds of her getting into the Gulf of America is low at this time due to the time of year. The models Support this idea of this Staying out of the Gulf and away from Florida. But that can't completely be ruled out. Historically it is rare during late October and November . But we have had exceptions with major hurricanes hitting the United States. So we will have to keep an eye on this system as it continues to evolve.

10/19/2025

 A quick look at the week ahead.

That warm front really ramped up the temperature. Ahead of their approaching slow moving cold front winds have been gusting to 30-40 and in some cases closer to 50 miles an hour. The rain and thunderstorms moving across far western parts of the region will slowly work its way east to night Reaching central New York And central Pennsylvania Pennsylvania 10:00 PM to around midnight. On the radar we can see that squall line working across western New York state and northwest Pennsylvania

some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe. This will be especially true across Pennsylvania Into the northern Middle Atlantic where the national weather service has a Marginal Risk for severe storms

The rain And possibly a few thunderstorms Will make it into eastern New York state into eastern Pennsylvania and western New England during the overnight. Tomorrow the rain and thunderstorms will continue to push east as that slow moving cold front moves over the region. 

General rain amounts across the region look to range from 0.50" to 1.50" with some higher amounts possible. Monday night and Tuesday We will have a few week troughs move across the region. These will bring a chance for a few rain showers, But not everyone will see them. Then on Wednesday another cold front is going to push through the region bringing widespread scattered rain showers. Then for Thursday and friday another series of troughs are going to move across the region bringing the chance for a few isolated rain showers High pressure looks to build in for Saturday and Sunday, with the high pressure starting to exit east later in the day.

The Atlantic basin.

Invest 98L is moving into the Caribbean. The national hurricane Service has the 7 day development odds at 70%. 98L is charging west at around 22 to 23 mph. Once this makes it into the central Caribbean it should slow down quite a bit. Given the very warm sea surface temperatures and deep ocean heat content; once this slows down it could develop into a named tropical system  by the end of this week. The next name on the list is Melissa.

Giving the conditions where this goes covers a wide area. 98L could continue into Nicaragua and Honduras Or it could head towards Jamaica and Cuba. Even Hispaniola is possible.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Have a great rest of your Sunday

A look at current drought conditions and more thoughts on the upcoming winter

 Latest drought update

The Northeast and Middle Atlantic have been experiencing a prolonged drought that has lasted for several months. 

Rainfall this week across the region has been a case of the have and have not. Areas that saw meaningful rainfall saw some improvement in the over all drought conditions. However areas that saw limited rainfall saw drought conditions remain the same or get worse.

State drought declarations

The US drought monitor released yesterday, shows that 12% of the Northeast is in extreme drought conditions, 22% is experiencing severe drought, 29% in moderate drought and 32% considered abnormally dry. Compared to 12%, 22%, 30% and 32% respectively last week.

The drought has led to wide ranging implications across the region.

The Northeast and Middle Atlantic region has been experiencing degraded water quality, extremely low water levels and stream flow, many wells running dry, especially those that are dug or stream fed. The drought has also been devastating for the Christmas tree industry along with this year's pumpkin crop. So be prepared To pay a lot more for these holiday staples. Farmers in general have seen greatly reduced crop yields.

Here is a look 7 day rainfall forecast For the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic region.

When it comes to the rainfall deficit across the region We're in a deep hole and it's going to take a lot of time to climb out of it.

Winter 2025-2026

The winter pattern continues to evolve we've just gotten over another major winter storm that hit Alaska. This is going to end up dropping south and east and become a major driver for next week's weather.

Image credit tropical tidbits

As the jet stream slowly continues to push south We are seeing stronger storms Move into Alaska and drop down into North America. As the cold continues to build south It is going to push the storm track south and encourage more of these stronger storms to move Into the Continental US. 

Looking at the euro chart We can see we have another strong storm that's dropping down towards British Columbia With another storm Dropping out of Asia heading towards The gulf of Alaska. The one dropping towards British Columbia is going to bring a lot of heavy snow to that region. Looking at the chart below We can see that blocking building up over the arctic This is the reason for that cold moving south along with the adjustment in the storm track. I expect this pattern to continue to evolve and stay active over Canada and the northern half of the CONUS for the next few weeks.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Current global sea surface temperature anomalies

Sea surface temperature anomalies for last October

 

The global SST anomalies for both years look very similar.

Teleconnections:

Snow cover and arctic sea ice extent

     

Snow cover across Siberia is well about above average for this point in October. Arctic sea ice extent is also larger than last year in fact larger than the last several years. It is also much closer to the north coast of Alaska than it has been over the last few years. 

This all adds up to what I've been saying  to a greater chance for cold air to migrate out of Siberia move across the Pole, Increasing our chances for cold across Canada and down here into the Lower 48.

El nino southern oscillation  (La Nina):

The climate prediction center placed us under a la Nina watch a little bit ago. As I've been saying This La Nina should be weak; which means the  average index in region 3.4 will be running -0.5° C.to -0.9° C. Currently the El Nino index in Nino region 3.4 is running right around -0.3° C. that means the La Nina is still running very weak. 

As I've been saying this should be a very short lived La Nina. We will likely start heading back towards ENSO neutral in January. Then maybe heading towards El Nino over next summer into the fall.

Image credit Climate prediction center

During Neutral to weak La Nina the polar jet typically dips farther south into the conus. This allows that colder arctic air bottled up to the north to be able to slide south and provide cold air across the northern Plains , Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast and into the northern Mid-Atlantic. This is all good if you're a snow lover because it takes cold to bring the snow

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) or as it's now called the east pacific -north pacific Pattern (EP/NP):

Right now we're in a positive EPO The indicators are pointing to the idea that this is going to shift to a negative EPO. This is important due to a negative EPO promoting rigging in the west And more in the way of general troughing here in the east, This adds to the idea I've been talking about with this being a winter that favors more cold than not. 

The way the EPO is behaving it is going to keep our pattern very active and energized.

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO):

The QBO is in the negative easterly phase. During the winter an easterly QBO leads to a greater chance for cross polar flow events and Indicates a greater chance for a weaker than average polar vortex. Because of this during the negative phase of the QBO we tend to see greater chances for stratospheric warming events that can disrupt the polar vortex and allow cold air to move into the lower latitudes. 

The Pacific North American pattern (PNA):

As I've been saying over the last couple of months those very warm sea surface temperatures in the north pacific are going to be a major factor in how this winter transpires.

As I've already said in previous post this warm blob in the north pacific is going to promote a strong rigid into the Gulf of Alaska and over the West Coast this will allow for general troughing to set up here in the eastern half of the US. It is also going to help keep that polar jet very variable and wavy  due to it helping to keep the polar vortex overall weaker than we would normally see. Leading to a greater chance for cold air intrusions.

Tropical Northern Hemisphere Pattern (TNH):

This pattern is most predominant during December through February. It has a major impact on the position and strength of the pacific jet. In this way it acts as a gatekeeper On how much pacific moisture can make it into North America.  It's also a player in the strength and position the Hudson Bay low.  The Hudson bay low is a large area of low pressure that typically sets up over the Hudson Bay during the winter months, from late fall into early spring. 

The Hudson bay low is a very important factor in how cold and stormy winters here in northeast and northern Middle Atlantic can become. It can help send cold air out of Canada into the Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast region of the United States. But it can also act as a block in the northern Flow that can redirect the storm track further south into the northern half of the United States. So the TNH's impact on how strong the Hudson bay low can become and where it will end up setting up;  will be a big factor in how this winter goes.

When the TNH is positive we tend to see ridgeing in the Gulf of Alaska and down through the western half of the United States This in turn leads to troughing over the eastern United States. So of course, when the TNH is negative the pattern reverses

Image credit climate protection center.

Years that saw the TNH in a positive orientation saw a greater tendency for cooler than average conditions here in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic and especially back into the Great Lakes.

Great Lakes:

The lakes are very warm for mid October. Temperatures across the Great Lakes are running 2-7°F above average for this time of year.

Image credit Great Lakes environmental research laboratory

Last winter the lake effect snowbelt regions had an epic winter. With annual seasonal snowfall amounts ending up well above average. With the water as warm as it is when that colder air starts moving across them; we could see another very active lake effect winter in the snow belts.

Analogues

1990-1991, 2006-2007, 2008-2009, 2013-2014, 2017-2018, 2024-2025

These analogues are based on winters that started with a positive TNH.

October 1990 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies

October 2006 SST anomalies

October 2008 SST anomalies

October 2013 SST anomalies

October 2017 SST anomalies

 October 2024 SST anomaly

 

Here are the temperature and precipitation composites involving these six analogue seasons

Another set of maps

what does this mean?

During a weak La Nina/neutral ENSO, the northeast and Middle Atlantic tend to see above average precipitation amounts. This is due to the fact of how the polar jet and the subtropical jet end up  phasing (interacting) to varying degrees. So depending on the timing of cold air and orientation of the storm track at that time will determine precipitation type, northern areas favor more in the way of snow while southern areas would favor a chance for some rain events.

Given what I'm seeing in this evolving pattern, this winter is going to favor More in the way of cold and a better chance for snowy events. The northern half of the Northeast general  snowfall amount should end up above average from December through February. South of there average to slightly below average snowfall amounts for the season. But of course that is going to depend and the timing of the storms moving along the storm track.

With the way the pattern is shaping up and as warm as the Great Lakes are; I believe this is going to be another very active and busy lake effect snow season.

The way the pattern looks to evolve with the polar and subtropical jets. It looks like it's going to favor a  storm track through the Midwest, Great Lakes into the Northeast. But I can also see a chance for some coastal/nor 'easter type storms.

That's it for now.