10/06/2025

 Warm first half cool second half.

Today is going to be another very warm one, But perhaps a bit cooler than yesterday, where many of y'all broke or at least tied record highs. The strengthening southwest flow will bring in a bit more humidity than we've been seeing, But it still won't feel too bad.

Radar shows the entire region is dry; this should remain the case for the entire day over the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic.  The surface chart is showing that approaching cold front over the upper Great Lakes and Midwest, with the rain ahead of it. 

Satellite shows Most of the region is see clear skies. But we do have some clouds over New Jersey back into Delaware that are in the process of burning off.

So today is going to be a very tranquil summer like day. But that will be changing for tomorrow into Wednesday. Tonight we will see clouds increasing west to east As that cold front gets closer. Ahead of the cold front winds will become a bit breezy. The cold front will start to bring rain Into western New York State and western Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. As the front continues to move in rain will become steady over western parts of the region . The rain and thunderstorms will reach into central parts of New York State and into central Pennsylvania late morning into the afternoon, Rain will become more steady later in the day into the evening.  As the rain showers with some embedded thunder continues to work its way northwest to southeast It will move into eastern New York state Tuesday Tuesday evening and reach into South east Pennsylvania Lehigh Valley, into Maryland and Delaware Tuesday night. The rain showers with possibly some thunder we'll move across western new England Tuesday night into the overnight. The thunderstorms on Tuesday should be non severe but they could bring some locally heavy rain. The rain showers look to make it into eastern New England and places like Boston Wednesday morning. The rain over eastern New England and parts of the northeastern Middle Atlantic will be winding down by mid to late afternoon.

Most of y'all will see a general rainfall amount of a quarter of an inch to possibly as much as an inch of rain. Those who see any heavier downpours could see a bit more than that. This won't be a drought buster by any means but any rain is welcome.

Wednesday high pressure will start to build in behind a departing cold front. Temperatures will be cooling off quite a bit behind the cold front This area high pressure will be in control of our weather for Thursday and Friday, providing cool fall like temperatures and sunny mainly clear skies. Then on Friday night we will be watching Low pressure To our south coming up along the Coast. Depending on how this tracks It could bring some rain to parts of the region for Saturday and especially on Sunday. Monday would see low pressure hanging out and bring a chance for lingering rain across the Middle Atlantic into New England. Of course if this low pressure tracks to the east rainfall would be fairly scattered; if it does track west we could end up with the Middle Atlantic into southern New England seeing more in the way of substantial rainfall. Rainfall over the interior parts of the Northeast for Sunday and Monday will depend on how this low ends up tracking.

Tropical Atlantic

Invest 95L

Is still somewhat disorganized on satellite. But it is looking a little better each day.The National Hurricane Center has 2 day development odds of 50% and 7 day development odds of 70%.

Image credit Tomer Burg

I-95L is moving west northwest across the Central Atlantic. It should be approaching the northern Leeward islands Thursday or Friday. The question is will this move over the Leeward islands or recurve and stay just northeast of the islands. Right now the cold front and trough that will be dropping through our region tomorrow and Wednesday will continue to move south and so the odds favor this recurve keeping it north and east away from the islands. 

Image credit Tomer Burg

The conditions 95L is moving through do favor gradual development and this could be come a tropical depression or even tropical storm Jerry by the time we get near the weekend. If this does indeed recurve there is a chance it could become a hurricane early next week. There is some potential for 95L to possibly become a major hurricane at some point. Due to that trough over the eastern US I don't think this is going to pose any risk other than some rip currents and higher surf to the East Coast of the United States.