10/20/2025

 It's going to be a active week!

The surface chart and radar shows the upper level low and the cold front moving across the region bringing with it the rain along with a few embedded thunderstorms. The upper level low Is going to slide across Pennsylvania,  New York State and New England. This will keep most the scattered rain shower activity across New York state and new England, With Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey end up seeing more in the way of isolated rain shower during the day. General rainfall amounts across Pennsylvania, New York State and new England look to be generally 1⁄4 of an inch to 3⁄4 with those who see  the heavier rain showers Seeing perhaps 1" to 1.5". Rainfall amount Across the northern Middle Atlantic Look to be moving out during this afternoon. However across New York State and Western New England will be moving out tonight. Will the rain over Maine looking to settle down during the overnight.

Temperatures today Are going to be cooler than you were yesterday, But they're still going to be fairly seasonal.. We're going to be having a tightening pressure gradient Over New York state and new England as the upper level low continues to move west to east This will lead to winds becoming gusty 15-25 miles an hour with some 30 to 40 miles an hour possible,especially in the higher elevations and along the New England coast. Again the northern middle Atlantic will avoid the worst of the wind.

Tuesday during the day much the region looks fairly nice with winds being lighter Those are the greatest chance of seeing rain showers will be across northwest New England. Temperatures again tomorrow will be seasonal. Then tomorrow night into Wednesday we will watch another weaker cold front will approach and move through west to east. This cold front will again bring the chance for scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms. We are going to cool off behind this front.  Then for Thursday and Friday we will see a series of troughs move through the region with variable clouds and keeping the threat for isolated rain showers in the forecast. The further north you are the greater your chance of seeing rain. Thursday night into Friday, there will be a chance for some snow up across the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites.  Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds along with a chance for a few isolated showers but the vast majority of us should stay dry. For Saturday night and Sunday high pressure will be moving in overhead, Most of the region should stay dry. Then for Monday a warm front will move through allowing temperatures to warm back up As we watch the approaching cold front for Tuesday. With the warm front will come the chance for widely isolated rain showers.

The rain this week will end up putting a dent in the drought conditions across the region. But it won't be a drought buster. As I've been saying we're in a deep hole and it's going to take us a while to get out.

The tropical wave in the Caribbean.

Image credit Tomer Burg

Invest 98L Is being given development odds of 50% and 80% chances over the next 7 days For development. On satellite this is becoming increasingly organized. 98L is starting to slow down as anticipated. It's currently moving westward at around 18 miles an hour.

With the slowing speed and Warm sea surface temperature this will likely become a tropical depression Over the next 24 hours or so! 98L Is going to slow to a crawl, Over water that has a deep Oceanic heat content with lighter windshear. 

The odds favor this becoming Melissa later this week. Future Melissa is going to be dealing with opposing steering currents. Her most likely path is going to be heading towards Hispaniola or eastern Cuba. But there is still a path open for her to try to head towards Nicaragua and Honduras. 

Image credit Tomer Burg

The odds of her getting into the Gulf of America is low at this time due to the time of year. The models Support this idea of this Staying out of the Gulf and away from Florida. But that can't completely be ruled out. Historically it is rare during late October and November . But we have had exceptions with major hurricanes hitting the United States. So we will have to keep an eye on this system as it continues to evolve.