10/19/2025

 A quick look at the week ahead.

That warm front really ramped up the temperature. Ahead of their approaching slow moving cold front winds have been gusting to 30-40 and in some cases closer to 50 miles an hour. The rain and thunderstorms moving across far western parts of the region will slowly work its way east to night Reaching central New York And central Pennsylvania Pennsylvania 10:00 PM to around midnight. On the radar we can see that squall line working across western New York state and northwest Pennsylvania

some of these thunderstorms could be strong too severe. This will be especially true across Pennsylvania Into the northern Middle Atlantic where the national weather service has a Marginal Risk for severe storms

The rain And possibly a few thunderstorms Will make it into eastern New York state into eastern Pennsylvania and western New England during the overnight. Tomorrow the rain and thunderstorms will continue to push east as that slow moving cold front moves over the region. 

General rain amounts across the region look to range from 0.50" to 1.50" with some higher amounts possible. Monday night and Tuesday We will have a few week troughs move across the region. These will bring a chance for a few rain showers, But not everyone will see them. Then on Wednesday another cold front is going to push through the region bringing widespread scattered rain showers. Then for Thursday and friday another series of troughs are going to move across the region bringing the chance for a few isolated rain showers High pressure looks to build in for Saturday and Sunday, with the high pressure starting to exit east later in the day.

The Atlantic basin.

Invest 98L is moving into the Caribbean. The national hurricane Service has the 7 day development odds at 70%. 98L is charging west at around 22 to 23 mph. Once this makes it into the central Caribbean it should slow down quite a bit. Given the very warm sea surface temperatures and deep ocean heat content; once this slows down it could develop into a named tropical system  by the end of this week. The next name on the list is Melissa.

Giving the conditions where this goes covers a wide area. 98L could continue into Nicaragua and Honduras Or it could head towards Jamaica and Cuba. Even Hispaniola is possible.

Image credit tropical tidbits

Have a great rest of your Sunday