Sunny and dry
The surface chart Radar and Satellite
We have high pressure centered over southern new England. This is keeping the entire region dry. The vast majority of the region is completely cloud free but we do have a few clouds Over the northern middle Atlantic along with part of South-central Pennsylvania.
Today started out quite chilly, With many areas seen a frost or freeze. Our temperatures are going to rebound and turn into a nice fall day. Tonight temperatures will become crisp But they shouldn't be as cold as last night. As we start the weekend we will be watching the developing storm off the Southeast coast.
Saturday will be mostly dry for the region. But we will have that upper level low That will be dropping out of Canada north of Great Lakes, Bringing the chance for some scattered showers for Western New York State. These scattered showers will be dropping into Southwest Pennsylvania on Sunday. For the rest of the region on Saturday south southwest winds will be pushing clouds into the region, but other than those showers in western parts of the region, the region should stay mostly dry. Saturday night could see a few rain showers for the Northern Middle Atlantic move in on a easterly flow from that developing coastal low.
Off the Southeast Coast the coastal storm is starting to cook.
That upper level feature just north of the Great Lakes is a little further north than it looked to be a few days ago. This has changed the steering currents slightly. So that developing storm in the Southeast is going to drift east a little bit before the upper level feature pulls it back to the west. Because the upper level feature is further north it is effecting the timing of the coastal storms development. Both of these features are still going to end up merging It's just gonna take a little bit longer for that to happen. Instead of starting the merge tomorrow the merge won't happen until Sunday into Monday.
As I was saying over the last couple of days. This cold core coastal system could develop some tropical characteristics as it heads north over warmer waters Will it get a name? Doubtful, but that will be up to the National Hurricane Center.
Saturday will feature waves of rain that will be moving into the Middle Atlantic from time to time. It won't be wet all the time so it won't be a washout. But still not the best of days. Saturday night The rain chances will increase as conditions slowly start going downhill. Then on Sunday as the northern element and the coastal start to merge conditions across Southern new England and Northern Middle Atlantic will quickly go downhill. Rain will be increasing and coming in waves some of the rain could be very heavy at times. The worst conditions from the storm should be Sunday night into Monday with steady very heavy rain at times along with howling winds. Then Monday mid-afternoon into Tuesday morning the coastal storm should be weakening and pushing south and east, with rain becoming much more scattered in nature, as clearing starts to develop northwest to southeast. As I've been saying this is going to be a long duration event lasting from 36-48+ hours for the Northern Middle Atlantic into Southern New England.
As far as impacts
For western and central Pennsylvania, a large part of New York state Northern and Central New England sustained winds of 5-10 mph with gust as high as 20-25 mph will be possible. South and east of here sustained winds of 10-30 mph with wind gust away from the coast will be 30-40 mph while the wind gust along the coast will be 40-70 mph.,
For Maryland, Delaware into Southern and Eastern New Jersey, across long island into Southeast New England including the off-shore islands, 2-5 inches of rain is likely. Along the I-95 corridor from the Middle Atlantic up into Southern New England 1-3 inches of rain is a good bet. North and east of here across Northeast Pennsylvania, into Southeast New York State south of Albany, into the Southern part of Central new England 0.5-1.5 inches of rain will be possible. General rainfall amounts north and west of these points will generally be 0.10 of an inch to as much as 0.5 of an inch possible for some.
Image credit pivotal weather
Along the coast moderate to heavy coastal flooding, some areas could see significant coastal flooding. significant beach erosion will be an issue. Off-shore waves will likely be 15-20 feet. Light to moderate damage will be likely along the coast. With the wind, power outages will be quite possible across parts of Southern New England back down into the Northern Middle Atlantic.
Image credit pivotal weather
Atlantic
Image credit Tomer Burg
Jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry has max sustained winds of 50 mph, minimum central pressure Of 1006mb, tracking northwest at 17 mph.
Karen
Subtropical Storm Karen is tracking northeast at 9 mph across the Northeast Atlantic, with max sustained winds of 45 mph.
Neither one of these look to be a danger to land, with Jerry passing well south and east of Bermuda. It is very unusual for a subtropical storm to form this far north in the Atlantic but as we can see they do occasionally happen.
So the weak La Niño is officially here.You knew that was coming and used it in your upcoming Winter updates.I reread my post from yesterday and think I used some words that should not have been used and didn’t use words that I should have.My thoughts were that you hit the storm that will whack the Rockies over 2 weeks ago.You said then that if that happened you would feel like you had a good handle on the upcoming Winter Pattern.I made it sound like you may be second guessing yourself because of SST cooling in the Gulf of Alaska.That may be how some react but your style of forecasting is somewhat based on recognizing Weather patterns from previous years,combined with looking at all the different ingredients from around the world ( all of the abbreviations you use,NAO,PO,MJO) too many for me to remember.Then All of the computer models that you are usually ahead of.Add it all up and you have Rebecca’s Forecast.I Love when you hit a storm from 2 weeks out and the weather apps are calling for sun and then 2 days before they get with the program.
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I have sent invites to my friends and family and when it starts to get cold and stay cold they will dribble in,some already have.
When I read about the storm coming into California,I looked at the calendar and said there it is,so my wife had the day off and wanted too go shopping.We ended up at the tire store getting Snow tires.Last year I waited too long and the ones I wanted were sold out by October 31.They will go on November 1.Thank You for having Pride in what you do.🦄
Thank you for trusting me and for following my post.
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