10/27/2025

 The weekend was cool but basically dry. The high pressure is still in control Of our weather pattern For today Today will still be a bit cool, but the region will continue to stay dry. The surface chart and radar show nothing going on over the region.

We have high pressure centered up in Canada north of the great lakes that is dominating the local weather pattern. With  the cold front well off-shore the region is mainly dry with perhaps a isolated shower or two up over eastern Maine. These showers are retrograding in from the Atlantic

The infrared satellite shows a lot of sun over most of the region with variable clouds up over northeast New England from that upper level low. The satellite also  shows major hurricane Melissa down near Jamaica.   The satellite does show the active weather pattern over the US. We have that upper level low Sitting up over the gulf of Maine and Atlantic Canada We also have another upper level low that is sitting over the mid Tennessee Valley. This upper level low is going to continue to push east. Where it will pick up Melissa and force her to turn north and then northeast. The satellite also shows That disturbance Dropping out of the western Canadian Providences into Montana and North Dakota. This disturbance is going to continue to drop south and east and into the Southeast, then starting Wednesday it will have an impact on our region here in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic.

I will talk a little bit more about Melissa later in the post But frankly there isn't much more than I can say. I hope my post on Melissa have been informative and that you found them accurate and worthwhile. I know many of you might  find talking about hurricanes that won't impact our region all that useful. But they are a major story and I do have people who are closer to these  regions who follow the page. So I post on them!

The high pressure is going to remain in control for tomorrow into Wednesday. Providing scattered clouds and warming temperatures, I can't rule out a few spotty showers. Then on Wednesday we will be watching that disturbance to our south. During Wednesday a few showers will be possible over southern Pennsylvania  along with Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and perhaps for Long Island into extreme southern New England. For Wednesday night and Thursday that disturbance is going to continue to push north into western Pennsylvania. Then Thursday and Thursday night, the region is going to start to see widespread rain that will be locally heavy. General rainfall amounts across the region look to be 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts very possible, The heaviest rain looks to fall across eastern Pennsylvania into the northern Middle Atlantic and central to eastern New York State and New England. Winds will also be on the increase with sustained Southern winds of 15-30 mph.The winds will  become very gusty with winds of 30-50 mph, with higher gust possible especially in the higher elevations and across Cape Cod and off-shore islands. Most of the rain looks to hold off across northeast New England on Thursday, Moving in for Thursday night and Friday. On Friday conditions will be improving across most of the region, as the area of low pressure moves out. But Maine is going to continue to see the rain into Friday evening. With  the high winds make sure y'all secure your Halloween decorations. Last week I was talking about the possibility of some snow Out of the system But that area of low pressure is going to move into the region further west than I had thought. This will keep most of the region on the warm side of the storm; so I don't think anybody's gonna see any snow out of it. 

The worst of the conditions for Halloween Friday will be up over Maine Into New Hampshire; where you will be dealing with a lot of rain and strong winds. The rest of the region should be mainly dry But winds are still going to be quite breezy Temperatures are also going to be rather cool. So anybody going out trick or treating will need to take the weather in consideration when getting ready for your festivities. Over the weekend we are going to see a series of shortwave troughs move through the region on Saturday bringing the chance for a few rain showers. Then on Sunday another area of low pressure is going to move into the region bringing the chance for rain showers. This area of low pressure won't be near as strong as the one we're going to be dealing with on Thursday. Then for Monday yet another area of low pressure will approach out of the Great Lakes and move through. This will be accompanied by a strong cold front bringing gusty conditions, rain and much colder conditions behind it.

Major hurricane Melissa.

Melissa is a category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 165mph, a minimum central pressure of 908 MB, Tracking west at 3 mph.

As I said above There isn't much more that I can say about Melissa that I haven't already said in the days previous to this. The only little change has been a slight nudge to the south with her track. But we can expect these wobbles and nudges to occur over the next 24 hours or so. Once she starts to interact with that trough up over the United States she is going to abruptly turn north and head towards Jamaica. At some point most likely today She is going to start that turn to the north with a landfall looking likely for early Tuesday morning as a Category 5, west of Kingston across western into central Jamaica. She is going to bring catastrophic impacts. I pray those across the island will heed warnings and seek safe shelter and not try to ride this out and hunker down in their houses. Once she moves away from Jamaica she is going to impact eastern Cuba as a major hurricane bringing devastating winds and rainfall. The setup has evolved a bit and it now looks like Melissa is going to target the southern Bahamas She will likely still be a major hurricane at that point. The Turks and Caicos look to stay more on the fringe of Melissa's impact. But any wobbles in her track could change this so those in the Turks and Caicos will have to keep a close eye on this.

A look at the rainfall forecast for the next 3 days.

Melissa is going to stay south and east of the East Coast of the United States Our region up here in the Northeast will see no direct impact or other than some wave and  rip tide action, no indirect impact from Melissa. Right now Melissa looks to be approaching Bermuda Thursday night into Friday