Hurricane Melissa

 As expected hurricane Melissa went through rapid intensification and is now a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and a central pressure of 953MB. Her forward speed had increased to 5 mph, but the 11a.m. update shows her back to tracking west at 3 mph, about 110 miles south of eastern Jamaica.

On satellite we can see that she has indeed become the monster that she was feared she would be.

Nothing has really changed with what I discussed yesterday. We are awaiting for her to officially become a Category 5 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center shows her peaking at around 160 mph. It is certainly possible that is underdone, and she could become even stronger than that. Hurricanes are creatures of water and are much more than just wind. Even before she underwent her rapid intensification she was already a killer, having killed people in Hispaniola, due to days of her relentless rain pounding the region. Melissa is going to be a historic storm possibly rivaling Hurricane Mitch. This is not hyperbole, the setup supports this grim possibility!

Image credit Tomer Burg

The hurricane hunters Indicate she may have plateaued for the moment. But I still fear that she will become a category 5 later today or tomorrow. The National Hurricane Centers forecast shows her plowing into Jamaica as a strong Category 4. But it's equally possible She will hit them as a Category 5. But really that distinction is rather meaningless As her impact will be catastrophic, regardless of the number that she has been assigned. She is approaching Jamaica from the south. That is going to maximize the impact of the incredible storm surge that she is going to generate. The storm surge Is looking to be 9 to perhaps as much as 15 feet. The rainfall forecast is showing as much as 40 inches of rain could fall over eastern Jamaica.

The image shows  widespread rainfall of 15-30  inches will be possible across Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba. The rain is going to lead to catastrophic flooding, landslides and mudslides. After hitting Jamaica, she will make a landfall on eastern Cuba most likely as a Category 4 hurricane. Once past Cuba She is going to head towards the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, possibly still as a major hurricane.

She is going to start to have a major impact on Jamaica starting tomorrow afternoon with a landfall likely sometime Tuesday morning. Those in her path need to be completing preparations and everyone involved needs to find safe shelter. 

I am very worried for those in this part of the Caribbean, prayers for all of you!