10/21/2025

Yesterday was windy, wet and cool !

Yesterday's rain wasn't a drought buster, but it did help with needed rain.

The surface chart shows one area of low pressure up over Atlantic Canada with cold front off the coast. It also shows A frontal system With an attached warm front and trailing cold front approaching from the west that is currently extended over the Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. In between these two cold fronts we have a few Shortwave troughs moving across the region. Today we'll see plenty of sunshine Ahead of that western frontal system. Clouds will be increasing as the day goes on as this pushes in from the west.

The radar shows the rain coming in from the west ahead of that approaching cold front.The rain is going to slowly move west to east across the region A few showers could make it into Central New York State into Pennsylvania  during this afternoon with things becoming a little more widespread during the evening.  Rain showers will be moving into eastern New York State this evening most likely after the sun sets. The rain will work into western New England later this evening and tonight. The rain will move into The northern Middle Atlantic region and eastern New England later tonight. Rain will linger into Wednesday morning as the front continues to push to the east. Don't be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder as this front is moving through the region. These thunderstorms should be non - severe. General rainfall amounts look to be 0.10 of an inch to 0.25 of an inch, with some areas perhaps seeing as much as 0.50 of an inch.

Behind the cold front A west to northwest flow means  cooler air is going to move in overhead for the rest of the week. These temperature should be seasonal to slightly below average. Both Wednesday and Thursday winds should be fairly gusty, With  gust possible as high as 30-35 mph. Thursday and Friday we'll see a series of shortwave trials move across the region keeping things unsettled with chances for isolated rain showers. Lake effect rain showers will be possible for later Wednesday and Thursday. As I said yesterday  Thursday night into friday there will be a chance for some light snow showers up in the mountains of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites. Friday should see the winds becoming less.

Saturday We'll see high pressure approach the region. Then for the rest of Saturday this high pressure will move in overhead into Sunday. Over the weekend especially on Sunday There will be enough cold air sliding over Lake Ontario and Lake Erie to produce some lake effect rain showers downwind of both lakes. The rest of the region should be mainly dry with only a very slight chance for an isolated shower.

For Monday and Tuesday a strong area of high pressure is going to move in overhead. Both days should see warmer temperatures and dry conditions.

November is looking to start out quite cold.

The Caribbean

As expected we now have tropical storm Melissa moving across the Caribbean. Currently the national hurricane center has her maximum sustained winds at 50 mph With a minimum central pressure of 1003MB. She is moving west at around 14 mph.

She was dealing with a bit of dry air She has insulated her center Enough to become a tropical storm. But on the satellite image you can see  she's still a little bit lopsided, Due to that moderate to high windshear. She should continue to slow down over the next few days lingering Maybe even stalling. over those very warm sea surface temperatures with deep oceanic heat content. Do this We should see her gradually intensifying and developing over the next few days. The setup and conditions are such that Melissa could be a major hurricane By the time we get into this coming weekend sitting near Jamaica south of Hispaniola.

But regardless of development Melissa is going to be a major rainmaker for Jamaica Cuba and Hispaniola.

Image credit Tomer Burg

The steering currents in the Caribbean are going to be very weak. How Melissa tracks will depend on her strength at the time and how she can weave her way in between two areas of high pressure. It is possible She could get pulled towards Hispaniola. The longer she stays weak the better the chance she will continue westward towards Nicaragua and Honduras.