Made it to Wednesday
The surface chart shows the area low pressure moving across the region, currently centered over the Hudson valley. With the warm front lifting into New England ahead of that trailing cold front. That breezy southern behind that warm front will allow warmer temperatures into New England this afternoon.
The radar image Shows mostly of the steady rain associated with the frontal system Is currently over new England. This is going to continue to push east during the day; Allowing the conditions over new England to improve during this afternoon. The rain behind the cold front Is associated with the upper level low that is setting up over the Great Gakes. The upper level feature shows up very well on the infrared satellite image.
That upper level low is going to basically stay in place for the next several days keeping us unsettled with chances for isolated rain showers Across the region Along with lake effect rain showers coming in downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, as a series of shortwave troughs rotates around and through the region. The flow is going to bring in cooler conditions for today into Friday. temperatures are going to be running seasonal to below average for this time of year, gusty winds are going to add to the chill in the air. As I've been saying Thursday night and to Friday could see some snowflakes out over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Greens and Whites.As far as rainfall Most of the region is going to see Perhaps 1⁄10 of an inch to 1⁄4 of an inch With some seeing maybe as much as half an inch over the next 3 days. The exception is going to be downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where those who get underneath the localized rain bands coming in off the lakes could see 1 to 3 inches maybe even a bit more than that.
High pressure out of Canada is going to be approaching late Friday into Saturday. This area of high pressure is going to generally stay overhead through Monday providing sunshine and tranquil conditions, Can't rule out the chance for a few very spotty rain showers over the weekend. Those downwind of lakes could see a few rain showers on Saturday with the lake effect showers more or less drying up for Sunday and Monday. Tuesday is looking to stay sunny for the most part. Black Tuesday night and Wednesday we'll be watching a back door cold front moving into the region. This will bring back chance for some rain showers.
The Caribbean
Tropical storm Melissa Has max sustained winds of 50 mph, A minimum central pressure of 1000MB, she has slowed way down moving west northwest at around 2 mph.
On satellite she is still lopsided as she deals with that strong wind shear.
She is going to be meandering around over very warm water, So as the wind shear starts to relax over the next couple of days she'll be in a better position to strengthen into a hurricane. There is still a chance that by the middle of next week she could be a major hurricane near or south of Jamaica.
Regardless of development Melissa is going to be a major rain maker for Jamaica, eastern Cuba Into Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Bringing the risk for very significant flash flooding.
There are still signals that the end of October into the first week of November could get quite cold here across the Great Lakes, Northeast into the northern Middle Atlantic. Could this mean some higher elevations like the Appalachians, Adirondacks, Catskills, Greens Whites maybe even the Berkshires see some snow? Maybe! We are looking way out so things could change but this is the way it's looking to me right now!
Have a great Wednesday
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