Melissa and the Coastal

 The midweek Coastal and Halloween

A storm that will be dropping out of Pacific northwest and another currently over the southern plains into the Ozarks are going to work their way east. This will have some impact on Melissa's track that I will talk about later on in this post But first, the future coastal storm looks too deepen as it heads for the Southeast Coast. Then from there it is going to move north and east up the Coast.

This coastal is going to present a big problem all the way from South Carolina to Maine. With all the major hurricanes and coastal storms in the Atlantic this year The coast has already been hit hard with beach erosion. The lack of that sand barrier along the coast from the Carolinas into the Middle Atlantic and New England, means there's an increased risk of coastal flooding coming a bit further inland than is typical. This will be especially true for along the New Jersey Coast and for the coast of Southeast New England.

The entire northeast for the second half Is going to be seen rain It won't be raining all the time. Wednesday as an area of low pressure off the coast and a shortwave dropping across the Ohio valley and moving south and east. This is going to develop into a coastal low.  it could bring rain to south southern Pennsylvania and in northern middle of Atlantic with even a chance for a rain snow mix for the Poconos and Catskills. This will head out to sea. Then we will be dealing with this coastal/northeaster for Thursday and Friday. Another wave of low pressure looks to develop and move up the Coast bringing blustery conditions and rain to the region. The heaviest rain looks to be over  Maine and Atlantic Canada. At this time the northern middle Atlantic looks to be spared the brunt of this but this could change. We are going to have the coldest air so far this season working into the northeast, so the chance for accumulating snow across parts of the Appalachians a and higher elevations of the northeast is definitely on the table.

The coastal combined with Melissa will create a lot of wave action and rip-tides for The East Coast.

The first part of November is still looking cold and wintery.The 1st part of November

Melissa

I've been posting on Melissa for several days, Unlike Melissa Which has been wavering and sitting and spinning, My discussions on Melissa have been non varied for the most part. So far she's been basically doing as I've been outlining. As I said many times, tropical cyclones especially ones like Melissa have  big bags of tricks; that they can pull things out of and throw monkey wrenches into the works. Will my outlook for Melissa continue to be mostly correct? That's going to depend on if Melissa reaches into that bag.

Sea surface temperatures and wind shear work hand and hand When dealing with tropical cyclones.  Tropical cyclones typically need SSTs of at least 80°F in order to develop a warm core. Normally any water temperatures colder than that mean the storm will weaken and or dissipate. Equally important is wind shear. Wind shear involves the change of direction and speed of wind with height. For the purpose of this post it will Deal with vertical.  Vertical shear involves a change in direction of the winds with height.

Melissa had been very disrupted and weak with her surface low jumping around a bit for3 to 4 days. The reason for this has to do with that fire hose of wind shear that's been keeping her surface low  from aligning  with her mid level and upper low. This is a phenomenon called vertical stacking. That strong wind shear has been blowing the mid level and upper level low east of her surface low. A vertically stacked hurricane has the surface low, Mid level low and the upper low sitting over the top of each other. When the hurricane is vertically stacked It allows the air to flow upwards very easily which helps strengthen the hurricane even more as convection (thunderstorms) continue to build bigger and bigger. When we have sinking air it has the exact opposite effect by interfering with the development of convection.

Tropical cyclones grow and become powerful hurricanes when they are vertically stacked. I've been talking about Melissa being lopsided over the last several posts. This is because the direction and speed of the winds at the surface are different than they are at the mid and upper levels. This has caused Melissa to lean in the direction of the windshear; which had kept her very weak with winds staying 45 mph to 50 mph and the central pressure ranging from around 1002MB To 1004MB over the last several days. This is an important concept when dealing with what might happen with Melissa down the road.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) and windshear

Melissa started to become better organized and started strengthening yesterday later afternoon, Becoming a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds and her central pressure dropping to 995MB at the 5:00 PM update on Friday. Currently the National Hurricane Center has her maximum sustained winds at 70 mph with a central pressure of 982MB. She is crawling west northwest at around 1 mph.

The sea surface temperatures Around Melissa are running 86°F To 88°F

Wind shear is lessening and this trend should continue

Dry air in the northwest Caribbean into Gulf of America

Another important element involving tropical cyclones is that they need a lot of atmospheric moisture. When the air is dry It leads to evaporation. Evaporation leads to further drying of the atmosphere.  This lack of moisture Interferes with the thunderstorm's development and causes the storm to weaken.

On the infrared satellite above We can see that she is much better organized And looks really healthy from what she looked like yesterday. Currently she is on the cusp of officially becoming a hurricane. Which likely will happen sometime today.

As I've been As I've been saying, Melissa is over very warm water, that runs deep. If she can continue to stay away from that wind shear that has been created by that upper level high to her north. She will become vertically stacked and most likely rapidly intensify Into a Category 4 or maybe Category 5 hurricane. Over the last couple of days she has been battling and mixing out some of that dust. That dust to her west and northwest is gonna be kind of a wild card. If this can become ingested into her circulation it will help interrupt her strengthening keeping her weaker, maybe much weaker, than the model forecast.

upper level winds

Where's Melissa going?

Yesterday's super ensemble

Today's super ensemble

Right now it looks like she's going to make a direct hit on Jamaica. Then make a second landfall on eastern Cuba, again likely still a major hurricane. After Cuba she will likely set her sights on either the southeast Bahamas or the  Turks and Caicos. Based on her current forward speed She could make landfall on Jamaica as a category 4 or maybe a category 5 late Monday or Tuesday. The national weather service has issued hurricane warnings for the entire island. Jamaica, Haiti into the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba can expect extreme winds, severe rainfall and devastating storm surge.

4 day rainfall forecast from NOAA

The amount of rain that's going to fall Is going to be catastrophic.  Jamaica, Haiti , Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba will see at least 12 inches with localized amounts of 30+ inches possible across eastern Jamaica and southwest Haiti . This is going to bring dangerous life threatening landslides mudslides and excessive flooding. In addition to all of this There is going to be a devastating powerful Storm surge.

She will undoubtedly be a weaker hurricane due to land interaction after she is pulling away from Cuba, as she's heading for the southern Bahamas and or Turks and Caicos. But still it is quite possible she could still be a strong Category 2 or even weak Category 3 at that time. Right now she looks to stay well south and east of Florida and the East Coast of the United States.  But that will depend partly on frontal interaction.