10/17/2025

 We made it to Friday!

Radar and the surface chart shows high pressure in control, with rain over the Great Lakes working into western New York State.

Today is going to be a little warmer than it was yesterday but it's still going to be coolish for this time of year. The winds won't be as breezy as they were yesterday either. So all in all it's going to be a great day. We do have a strengthen system out west that is working into the Great Lakes. Ahead of this, the high pressure that is centered over western Pennsylvania is going to give way. As this works its way east winds are gonna shift from the from northerly to southernly; As the warm front Lifts through the region Tonight and tomorrow These suddenly winds are going to allow our temperatures start to warm. There will be a chance for a few isolated showers associated with that warm front as it pushes through But most of us shouldn't see any rain out of it. As the southwest winds increase ahead of the approaching cold front temperatures are going to soar to well above average for this time of year for later Saturday and Sunday.  On Sunday the The winds are going to become gusty with gust of 25-35 perhaps as much as 40 mph. We're going to see an upper level low passing along with the cold front Bringing widespread but scattered rain showers to the region. There could be a few isolated rain showers mid to late morning over western parts of our region. The scope of the rain will increase As the day goes on, with these rain showers moving west to east across New York state and Pennsylvania. Reaching central parts of New York State and Pennsylvania during the evening. There are also going to be isolated thunderstorms with the frontal passage. Some of these could be strong to severe. The rain looks to make it into the eastern New York State and Middle Atlantic Region By Sunday night into Monday morning, Rain looks to make it into eastern New England late Monday morning into the afternoon. General rainfall amounts of a quarter to half an inch are likely for most, Some could see as little as 1⁄10 of an inch, while others see three-quarters to an inch.  Next week is going to be quite active. Monday through at least friday we are going to see a series of weak troughs and cold fronts move through the region bringing the chance for isolated to scattered rain showers every day. The rainfall next week Isn't going to be a huge drought buster. But we need the rain so any rain is going to be good news. Right now it's looking like we are going to nickel and dime our way Out of this drought at some point in the future. I will be posting on the drought conditions later today.

Tropical Atlantic.

Image credit Tomer Burg

We still have that strong tropical wave in the central Atlantic. It is moving over warm waters but it is dealing with quite a bit of wind shear and dry air. So it Looks fairly ragged on satellite at this time. The national hurricane center NHC Gives this 30% chance of developing into a depression or a tropical storm over the next 7 days. 

Image credit Tomer Burg

This will be Approaching and moving through the windward islands Over this weekend Heavy rain to the islands. Once it gets inside the Caribbean conditions will become much more favorable, with super warm water Of 86-88°F a lot of oceanic heat content, and windshear dropping way off . The steering currents In the Caribbean Are rather weak, So right now it's a bit difficult to try to figure out where this might end up tracking. If it doesn't try to push up towards the Greater Antilles,  it could be in the central Caribbean by middle of next week. from here it could drift towards Central America or even try to lift north and east near or through the Yucatan Strait. This bears keeping a close eye on. The next name on tropical list is Melissa

the northern area

Image credit Tomer Burg

The NHC is monitoring an area in the far northern Atlantic. They give this broad area of non tropical low pressure 10% chance of development over the next few days. This is going to have a long road to haul if it wants to become a sub tropical system. But regardless of development This looks to remain over the open water and shouldn't pose a threat to land.