10/13/2025

 

I was talking about this coastal's impacts For several days And for the most part that seems to have verified. Rain amounts Seem to come in right around what I thought they would And Forecasted winds seems to have verified. Coastal flooding and beach erosion has so far underperformed a little bit from what I thought it would. This is especially true along the New Jersey coast. But less flooding and erosion is a good thing. All in all I think the forecast went very well. I hope you found it useful

The surface chart shows the coastal hanging out off the coast.

The secondary low of the Mid Atlantic coast is in the process of becoming the primary. As it takes over from the old primary off the southeast coast.

When we look at the satellite the higher cloud tops are well off the coast. While we see the center of circulation just off the coast. So we know the storm has reached its peak And is now going to continue to slowly weaken. Today is going to feature these very gusty winds continuing, along with these waves of rain that are going to continue pushing into the interior. The rain across interior New York State and Pennsylvania will remain light. But the closer you get to the Coast, the heavier it will become, and it could become very heavy at times. Those along the coast will still have to deal with the coastal flooding and beach erosion. Then as that trough out west continues to approach It is going to push this coastal low south and east and away from the coast for tonight and tomorrow.  As this all goes on The wind and rain will slowly back off as the day goes on, with most of the rain being over by tonight. We do have one more high tide cycle to go through, then the flooding and beach erosion issue should also start to back off.

For Wednesday high pressure is going to try to build in but it is going to fade a bit as a weak moisture starved cold front comes through later in the day. The cold front could be accompanied by a few widely scattered showers. But the vast majority of us shouldn't see them. Behind the cold front winds will become northernly, Pushing  in some of that Canadian air into the region. The high pressure will completely move in for Thursday Providing a coolish but dry day. Friday will see the high pressure remain overhead Providing another nice cool but tranquil day. Also on friday we will be watching a frontal system approach from the west. The leading warm front will move through the region on Saturday, allowing temperatures To warm back up. The front shouldn't have much if any rain with it. But I can't completely rule out some showers here and there. The best chance of seeing any rain will be across northern New York and through northern new England; as the center of the low pressure  moves across Canada. Rain chances will increase west to east on Sunday as the cold front approaches and slowly moves through. The ring should finally reach into our eastern areas by Monday with rain lingering across the rest of the region during the day.

Tropical Atlantic

Tropical storm Lorenzo formed this morning in the central Atlantic. Making him the 12th named storm for this hurricane season. He currently has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, Minimum central pressure of 1002mb and he is tracking northwest at around 16 mph.

Image credit Tomer burg

He looks to stay away From the western Atlantic As he As he turns north and then northeast later in the week. There is a chance he could approach Azores.

We are going to have to keep an eye on the Gulf of America for next week as there is a chance we could see something develop.

The pattern

The pattern over the Northern Hemisphere continues its adjustment towards winter. We have the winter storm that is going to impact the northern Rockies into the Upper Plains and western into central Canada. Several inches of snow will fall across parts of Wyoming and Montana. Alberta Saskatchewan and Manitoba will likely be dealing with a blizzard out of this. Just behind this We have that upper level low dropping into California that will bring a snowstorm to the Sierra Nevadas. For those of y'all this shouldn't be a surprise as I've been talking about the snow storm in the Rockies and this pattern change for quite some time. The the way things are evolving It's looking like my earlier thoughts on this upcoming winter are pretty much right on the money. But we will see if that trend continues.

No post tomorrow.