I wanted to go into a bit more depth on all of this And show more data. But due to the government shutdown, a lot of the data sites are down. So this will have to do. Depending how long this government shut down last will determine when I can post next; It could be at least a few weeks before I'm able to post another winter update!
Global water temperatures as of 30 September, 2025
We still have all that warm water in the North Pacific. These very warm sea surface temperatures (SST s) stretch from Canada all the way over to Asia. This has been Causing ridgeing which is deflecting the pacific jet to the north. With the northern jet further north, than typical for this time of year. It has all the cold locked up over the arctic due to the stronger than average polar vortex.
Over the last 4 or 5 years We've had very warm water temperatures across the North Pacific. Here is a composite of the last 4 years. Compared to the 20 year average.These SS T Anomalies are well above average.
When we compare this to the 2 meter surface temperatures Across north America We see there's a lot of warming across all of Canada and 2⁄3 of the United States. This is result of the same process that I talked about above. Where we have that Northern jet further north due to the ridge setting up over the Aleutians. Which alters the jet stream pattern damming up the cold air to our north.
Over the last few weeks we've had persistent troughing sitting in a Gulf of Alaska.
But currently we are going to have the troughing work its way East. As strong ridgeing sets up over the Gulf of Alaska.
All of this is going to lead to the pattern change that I talked about today in the daily weather briefing.
Ice and snow extant:
The last couple weeks have been quite cold in Siberia into northern Alaska. The cold is allowing snow to build across Siberia. As of October 1st snow extent across Siberia is well above average. This is going to help Build that land bridge for the Cold to extend across the Bering Strait into North America. The summer melt season In the arctic is over. We're now starting to grow back sea ice. Right now, the ice extent in the Bering Sea is At its highest extent compared to the last few years that we've seen at this point in the season.
At this point in the season, arctic sea ice extent is much closer to northern Alaska than it has been in several years. This is good news if you want to see a cold winter here in the Northeast.
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