Melissa is historic

 Here in the Northeast

Strong high pressure is still in control, centered up near Hudson Bay.

We do have an area of low pressure sitting off the South Carolina coast. This is going to continue to push east out to sea and will not be an influence on our weather. Our next weather maker centered over the northern Plains, Will start to bring some of us some rain on Wednesday. Then for Thursday this is going to bring the region widespread rain.

For today it will be mainly dry but a few spotty showers will be possible over Eastern New England and winds are  light. After a cool start temperatures are going to recover and end up slightly above average for this time of year.

Tomorrow we'll see clouds starting to increase with a chance for a few showers across parts of southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware into New Jersey. North of there There will still be a chance for some spotty rain showers. The storm is going to be lifting Into western Pennsylvania Wednesday night into Thursday, With rain advancing southwest to northeast. Thursday starts out with scattered rain showers. That will become more widespread as the day goes on. General rainfall amount across the region on Thursday look to be 1-2  inches with some higher amounts possible. Rains will be locally extremely heavy at times. Steady winds across the region look to be 15-25 mph. Winds are going to be gusty with gust of 30-40 mph with some higher gust possible.

For Halloween Friday much of the region will be seen improving conditions as the storm starts to pull away. But we will still be seeing widespread moderate to  heavy rain up over Maine into New Hampshire, with conditions improving Friday night. Away from northeast New England the rest of the region is still going to be dealing with at least light rain showers it won't be raining all the time but it won't be pleasant. Those with the best chance of seeing more in the way of these light rain showers will be over northern New York State into Vermont. Halloween is still going to see gusty winds that could gust as high as 40 mph at times. So those trick or treating will have to dress in layers under their costumes and be prepared for the chance for rain. Behind the storm temperatures are going to become quite cool for Halloween into November. Over the weekend we will have a series of shortwave troughs moving through bringing a chance for a few showers. With the colder temperatures some snow will be possible in those typical higher  elevation areas across New York State and New England. Sunday night and Monday We will see a stronger trough dropping in from the north, This will bring a better chance For scattered rain showers across the region. Behind this trough high pressure will build in for Tuesday bringing in temperatures that are well below average.

Melissa in the Caribbean

She became even stronger overnight, As of the 10:00 AM update, the National Hurricane Center now has her maximum sustained winds at 185 mph, a minimum central pressure of 892mb. As expected she has picked up her pace, she is now tracking north northeast at 7 mph.

Image credit Eric Boreham

Image credit Tomer Burg

She will be making landfall on the southwest coast of Jamaica by early this afternoon, near New Hope. Jamaica's story and fate have already been set, as she will bring extremely catastrophic impacts to the island. She is going to weaken over Jamaica. Then she is going to move back across 90 miles of open water before reaching eastern Cuba Where she will have extreme impacts. Over the open water she could try to regain intensty. After Cuba the southern Bahamas and then Bermuda are in her sights.

Based on atmospheric central pressure Melissa is the 3rd strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin on record. She ties with the 1935 labor day hurricane. Only two other hurricanes have had lower central pressures since records have been kept, In second place is Gilbert back in 1988 at 888mb. With Wilma in 2005 sitting in 1st place, with a central pressure of 882mb. The only Atlantic hurricane to have stronger winds than Melissa was hurricane Alan back in 1980, with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph.