The the Climate Prediction Center officially declared yesterday that we're in a La Nina. If you've been following my winter outlook post this shouldn't be a big surprise.
Image credit Coral reef watch
The surface and subsurface water temperatures show the extent of the la Nina conditions in the eastern equatorial pacific.
As I've been saying this should be a short lived and quite weak La Nina. The indications are that La Nina will probably end by the middle of winter and conditions will return back to neutral by March into April.
With the La Nina We will see other teleconnections and ocean conditions like what's going on in the north pacific With all that warm water from Asia all the way to the West Coast of North America will be exerting more influence. I've been talking about the El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO and how this winter looks to unfold because of it, for the last few months. So I won't go back into it for now. But if you haven't read them you can go back and find and read them now.
The tropical Atlantic has been fairly busy For the last several weeks. But with the MJO index Looking to head into phases 3 and 4 conditions in the Atlantic basin are going to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. These phases are very La Nina like and so it will likely put a cap on tropical development in the Atlantic basin.
The drought conditions
For most of this week temperatures have been above average, with conditions being dry over that same amount of time, the drought and abnormally dry conditions have continued to expand.
The drought monitor released yesterday showed. 12% of the northeast in extreme drought conditions 12% of the northeast in extreme drought conditions, 22% in extreme drought, 30% in moderate drought, with 32% experiencing abnormally dry conditions.
Here in Northwestern Massachusetts the Drought Monitor says we are in a Moderate Drought,just too our North in Southwestern Vt.they are in a Severe Drought and then just to our South in Southern Berkshire County,that area is abnormally dry.We have a Nor' Easter coming for late tomorrow,Monday and maybe part of Tuesday.My question is if this will be a drought buster for Vt.the part with the Severe Drought.To there North is extreme and they must need much more than this storm will bring.
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