10/05/2025

 A look at the upcoming week and the tropics

Yesterday, was a great day to get outside and enjoy the fall weather and today is going to be a mirror image with very mild conditions and lots of sunny skies. While the weekend is warm the humidity is going to stay fairly low.

The high pressure sitting near the Coast is going to weaken and start to slide east on Monday. This will allow for a stronger southwest flow that will allow even warmer temperatures and increased humidity back into the region. Many parts of the region desperately need rain. Unfortunately tomorrow is looking to stay dry.

The dry conditions will come to an end on Tuesday and Wednesday as the high pressure continues to pull away with a cold front approaching to our northwest; increasing the breezy southwest flow allowing even warmer temperatures and higher humidity levels into the region. Tuesday as the cold front approaches and moves northwest to southeast over Western parts of the region, clouds will be increasing and widespread scattered rain showers are possible mid to late morning for western New York State into Northwest Pennsylvania. The rain showers will work into central parts of New York State and southwest into central Pennsylvania during the afternoon. The setup supports isolated thunderstorms. General rainfall amounts look to be a quarter to half an inch. But those who see the heavier downpours Might see upwards of around one inch of rain. The rain looks to make it into eastern New York state and eastern Pennsylvania Tuesday evening. The cold front will continue to move southeast advancing the rain during the overnight into Wednesday. While the rain is ending over New York State, Pennsylvania western New England on Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning. The rain will be continuing over eastern New England into the northern middle Atlantic Wednesday morning into the  afternoon before ending. Any thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday should be none severe. General rainfall amounts over New England and in northern Middle Atlantic region should be the same as it was for New York and Pennsylvania being a quarter of to half an inch with some areas seeing perhaps an inch or so in heavier downpours. The rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday isn't going to be a drought buster. But any rain is welcome!

As the cold front and trough continue to work their way east Thursday and friday. we'll see high pressure building overhead bringing mostly dry conditions and very cool temperatures with low humidity levels. The same general conditions will extend into the weekend and likely for the start of next week

Tropical Atlantic:

There are 2 areas of interest that the national hurricane center is watching. The first area is a tropical wave in the Atlantic that the national hurricane center is giving 40% odds of this developing over the next 2 days and a 70% chance over the next 7 days. This broad area of low pressure has been given the designation Invest 95L. Warm sea surface temperatures And atmospheric conditions Are conducive for further development as this moves across the Atlantic. 95L could be a proteins for the Leeward islands as we head towards this weekend. If this gets a name It will be named Jerry.

The other area in the north central Gulf of America off the Coast of Louisiana, has 2 day and 7 day odds of development at 0%. This should continue to drift north and west. The system is dealing with strong upper level wind shear so this shouldn't develop into anything But it will bring rainfall to Texas. When it reaches the coast sometime tomorrow.