Made it to Wednesday
I do hope all y'all had a chance to read my latest post on the upcoming winter pattern.
The surface chart and radar show the cold front and prefrontal trough pushing towards the coast with rain ahead of it. The satellite shows skies clearing west to east behind the front
Behind the cold front winds switch to northwest. As cool air starts to move into the region. The rain is going to continue to slide northwest to southeast with drying conditions developing out ahead of the front this afternoon. The sun should be breaking out across Southeast New England back down into the northern Middle Atlantic by mid to late afternoon.
Tonight and into Thursday high pressure is going to approach and build into the region Taking complete control of our weather pattern by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler than they are today, many will likely consider it downright cold. But conditions will be dry. The very cool and dry conditions will last for Friday and likely Saturday. What happens Sunday and Monday will depend on that coastal low that I've been talking about.
Image credit tropical tidbits.
We have an upper level low that is sitting on the southern end of this cold front that is going to drive south and east where it will start to interact with that tropical moisture moving into the Bahamas. By that time an upper level disturbance currently in the Northwest US will have dived across the country into the Great Lakes and will also begin to interact with all of this and help pull it north.Without a lot of steering effecting the coastal low, this could meander off the Carolinas up towards the Delmarva for a few days. This coastal should remain a cold core low and not become a tropical system. The water off the southeast coast is in the 80s but there will also be quite a bit of wind shear. Under these conditions this could develop tropical characteristics, it is slightly possible that this could become a subtropical storm. If it does it will be called Karen. So even though a tropical storm is highly unlikely, this coastal low could have similar impacts for the East Coast from the Carolinas up into New England.
By Saturday this coastal should be developing off the Carolina coast. How far north this low pressure can get will determine its impact for our region for Sunday and Monday.
Image credit tropical tidbits
The high pressure that is going to be over us for Friday into Saturday is going to drift towards Maine and the Gulf of Maine. At the same time a stronger area of high pressure is going to be moving into southeast Canada. Saturday night into Sunday the coastal low is going to continue to deepen. The high pressure up in Canada is also going to be becoming stronger. This is going to create a strong pressure gradient resulting in a lot of wind coming in on a easterly fetch into the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England. Saturday we'll see a lot of wind for the Carolinas with an onshore flow creating some coastal flooding and heavy rain. Sunday into Monday this could come far enough north to create rough surf, at least some coastal flooding and beach erosion with that strong on-shore flow. This is going to be a long duration event. Who sees the strongest winds, heaviest rain, most coastal flooding and how far into the interior the rain will spread will be determined by how close this storm can get to Long Island. Right now heavy rain and the possibility of 40-70 mile an hour winds are possible for the Carolinas up into the Jersey Shore. It's still a little murky on impacts for Long Island and southern New England. But windy conditions and at least some rain is a given for the coast of the northern Middle Atlantic, long Island and southern New England, especially along the Coast
Here is a look at the 7 day precipitation idea from pivotal weather. This could all change depending on the exact track and behavior of this coastal low.
The pattern and the tropics.
In the October 1st winter update I said there was a possibility of a winter storm that would impact the northern Rockies around October 12th to 14th. I also said that if this storm materialized it met I had a very good pattern handle on this pattern. The models are now recognizing this possibility. We're going to have the cold dropping south out of Canada along with moisture moving north and west out of the plains. This will all interact with a disturbance moving into the west coast. The ingredients are there for a major winter storm in the northern Rockies That will likely extend out into the northern Great Plains and Canada.
Tropical storm Jerry.
At the 8:00 AM update The National Hurricane Center has tropical storm Jerry's maximum sustained winds at 50 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1003MB.He is currently tracking west northwest at around 23 mph.
Image credit Tomer Burg
He is currently dealing with some wind shear that is given him some issues But as he turns north and east of the islands, he will slow and conditions should improve enough to allow him to obtain hurricane status. It's possible he could become a strong category 1 or weak category 2 hurricane by the time he likely passes to the east of Bermuda.He is going to pass close enough to the Leeward islands that tropical storm watches have been put in place by the National Hurricane Center.
Maybe a sign of things to come in regard to the costal :) Dave A
ReplyDeleteWe will see, but the pattern that looks set up will support at least a few coastal storms during the winter.
DeleteI did read your Winter update.NOAA certainly is not thinking as you are.There was a sentence that said ,Mild and Volitile,are the Temps.in the Gulf of Alaska causing you to think Winter in the Northeast could be a mild/ rainy type with some cold air from up North that when it gets here is not really cold.I know that you were just telling us what you were seeing.Most would not put themselves out there as early as you did.However you know that many people are craving a "normal" Winter and saw there was hope for that.There is a storm coming into California and will.give Snow to the Higher elevation's is this the Storm you were talking about that would eject out into the Rockies.You pegged that a while back.OMG, are you better than NOAA.😳🙂
ReplyDeleteThe pattern that looks to setup, like will have some mild weather from time to time. But this would be typical of anti winter. The main takeaway that I see is that with the strong ridgeing over Alaska Into the Pacific West Coast along with the cold air building that snow pack over Siberia into Alaska will influence that pacific jet leading to chances for the polar vortex to be Interrupted.Then with the persistent troughing dropping into the central and eastern US added With a wavy and more volatile vortex there will be opportunities for cold air outbreaks here in the northeast and northern middle Atlantic region. The current indications are that this upcoming winter could be the coldest winter we've seen in over 10 years. With the cold there will be plenty of storm and snow opportunities. But as is always the case that will depend on timing and track. I do think the pattern is going to support coastal and nor'easter type storms. Most of my long range forecasting Is based on pattern recognition, teleconnections and analog data. But in truth most forecasters are just making educated guesses based on their skill set and knowledge of what they are seeing. But in many cases these forecasters are making their seasonal forecast based on long range model observations and trends. Which in my opinion is a big problem. I don't know if I'm better than NOAA. But there are times that I see things differently than they do. As I said I base a lot of my forecasting on pattern recognition. That recognition led me to the conclusion that we could see a big winter storm In the northern Rockies as we approached mid October. And that is exactly what is happening. In my opinion this means I have a decent handle on a pattern that seems to be developing. But when doing analog forecasting each one of those analog years can crop up from time to time. This pattern can and will change. No one really knows how much and how big those changes will be. But generally I think I'm right in the ballpark As how this winter is going to basically shake out. Thank you very much for following and reading my post!
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